A Continental-Scale Connectivity Analysis to Predict Current and Future Colonization Trends of Biofuel Plant’s Pests for Sub-Saharan African Countries

Mattia Iannella, Walter De Simone, Francesco Cerasoli, Paola D’Alessandro and Maurizio Biondi
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Mattia Iannella: Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L’Aquila, Via Vetoio Coppito, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy
Walter De Simone: Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L’Aquila, Via Vetoio Coppito, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy
Francesco Cerasoli: Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L’Aquila, Via Vetoio Coppito, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy
Paola D’Alessandro: Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L’Aquila, Via Vetoio Coppito, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy
Maurizio Biondi: Department of Life, Health & Environmental Sciences, University of L’Aquila, Via Vetoio Coppito, 67100 L’Aquila, Italy

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 11, 1-10

Abstract: Biofuel production in Sub-Saharan Africa is an important part of local low-income countries. Among many plant species, Jatropha curcas gained popularity in this area, as it can be grown even where crops of agricultural interest cannot. A natural African pest of J. curcas is the Aphthona cookei species group, for which future climatic suitability is predicted to favor areas of co-occurrence. In this research, we identify the possible climatic corridors in which the colonization of J. curcas crops may occur through a circuit theory-based landscape connectivity software at a country scale. Additionally, we use the standardized connectivity change index to predict possible variations in future scenarios. Starting from ecological niche models calibrated on current and 2050 conditions (two different RCP scenarios), we found several countries currently showing high connectivity. Ghana, Zambia and Ivory Coast host both high connectivity and a high number of J. curcas cultivations, which is also predicted to increase in the future. On the other side, Burundi and Rwanda reported a future increase of connectivity, possibly acting as “connectivity bridges” among neighboring countries. Considering the economic relevance of the topic analyzed, our spatially explicit predictions can support stakeholders and policymakers at a country scale in informed territorial management.

Keywords: biofuels; Jatropha curcas; Aphthona cookei species complex; landscape connectivity; Sub-Saharan Africa; agricultural economics; Circuitscape; agricultural pests; standardized connectivity change index; ecological modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
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