Identification of Regional Drought Processes in North China Using MCI Analysis

Xiuhua Cai, Wenqian Zhang, Xiaoyi Fang, Qiang Zhang, Cunjie Zhang, Dong Chen, Chen Cheng, Wenjie Fan and Ying Yu
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Xiuhua Cai: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Wenqian Zhang: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Xiaoyi Fang: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Qiang Zhang: National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081, China
Cunjie Zhang: National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081, China
Dong Chen: Public Meteorological Service Center, China Meteorological Administration (CMA), Beijing 100081, China
Chen Cheng: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
Wenjie Fan: China Meteorological Administration Training Centre, Beijing 100081, China
Ying Yu: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 12, 1-19

Abstract: Comprehensive identification of drought events is of great significance for monitoring and evaluating drought processes. Based on the date of daily precipitation, temperature and drought-affected area of 403 meteorological stations in North China from 1960 to 2019, the Comprehensive Drought Process Intensity Index (CDPII) has been developed by using the Meteorological-drought Composite Index (MCI) and regional drought process identification method, as well as the EIDR theory method. The regional drought processes in the past 60 years in North China, including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi and Middle Inner Mongolia, were analyzed and identified. The result shows that the distribution characteristic of droughts with different intensities is as follows: The number of days of all annual-average mild droughts, moderate droughts and severe droughts was highest in Tianjin and that of extreme droughts was highest in Shanxi. The number of days of mild droughts was highest in May and lowest in January. The number of days of moderate droughts was highest in June. The number of days with mild and moderate drought showed an overall increasing trend, while the number of days with severe drought and above showed an overall decreasing trend (through a 95% significance test). The number of drought days was the highest in the 1990s. The annual frequency of drought is between 66.7% and 86.7%; the drought frequency in Hebei is the highest at 86.7%, followed by Beijing at 80%. There were 75 regional drought processes in North China from 1960 to 2019, and the correlation coefficient between process intensity and the drought-affected area was 0.55, which passed the 99% significance test. The comprehensive intensity of drought process from 27 April to 1 September 1972 was the strongest. From 18 May to 31 October 1965, the drought lasted 167 days. The overall drought intensity had a slight weakening trend in the past 60 years. A total of 75 regional drought processes occurred in North China, and the process intensity showed a trend of wavy decline with a determination coefficient (R 2 ) of 0.079 (95% significance test). Overall, the regional drought process identification method and strength assessment result tally with the drought disaster, which can better identify the regional drought process. Furthermore, including the last days, the average intensity, average scope comprehensive strength, there are many angles to monitor and evaluate the drought and drought process. These provide a reference for drought control and decision-making.

Keywords: regional drought; drought intensity; drought area; North China; MCI; trend (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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