The Return of Wooded Landscapes in Wales: An Exploration of Possible Post-Brexit Futures

Syed Amir Manzoor, Geoffrey Griffiths, David Christian Rose and Martin Lukac
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Syed Amir Manzoor: School of Agriculture, Policy & Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6EU, UK
Geoffrey Griffiths: Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6EU, UK
David Christian Rose: School of Agriculture, Policy & Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6EU, UK
Martin Lukac: School of Agriculture, Policy & Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6EU, UK

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: Changes in agricultural policy may have a rapid impact, even on landscapes which have taken millennia to form. Here we explore the potential impact of the UK leaving the EU as a catalyst for profound changes in the pastoral landscapes of Wales. Impending change of the trading regime governing agricultural produce, concurrent with public pressure to use agricultural subsidies for environmental goals, may lead to unforeseen consequences for the Welsh natural environment. We employ a combination of change demand modelling and a ‘story and simulation approach’ to project the effect of five hypothetical plausible scenarios on land use and land use change in Wales by 2030. We show that the most extreme trade scenario would result in a significant expansion of broadleaf woodland across much of Wales. By contrast, the ‘green futures’ scenario introduced to supersede the Common Agricultural Policy, results in significant expansion of woodland but not at the level seen with the more extreme trade scenarios.

Keywords: Brexit; land use change; Wales; agricultural policies; UK (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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