Emerging Anthropogenic Influences on the Southcentral Alaska Temperature and Precipitation Extremes and Related Fires in 2019

Uma S. Bhatt, Rick T. Lader, John E. Walsh, Peter A. Bieniek, Richard Thoman, Matthew Berman, Cecilia Borries-Strigle, Kristi Bulock, Jonathan Chriest, Micah Hahn, Amy S. Hendricks, Randi Jandt, Joseph Little, Daniel McEvoy, Chris Moore, T. Scott Rupp, Jennifer Schmidt, Eric Stevens, Heidi Strader, Christine Waigl, James White, Alison York and Robert Ziel
Additional contact information
Uma S. Bhatt: Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Rick T. Lader: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
John E. Walsh: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Peter A. Bieniek: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Richard Thoman: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Matthew Berman: Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA
Cecilia Borries-Strigle: Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Kristi Bulock: US Fish and Wildlife Service Alaska Region, Anchorage, AK 99503, USA
Jonathan Chriest: Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Micah Hahn: Institute for Circumpolar Health Studies, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA
Amy S. Hendricks: Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Randi Jandt: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Joseph Little: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Daniel McEvoy: Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV 89512, USA
Chris Moore: Predictive Services at the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Alaska Fire Service, Fairbanks, AK 99703, USA
T. Scott Rupp: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Jennifer Schmidt: Institute of Social and Economic Research, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK 99508, USA
Eric Stevens: Predictive Services at the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Alaska Fire Service, Fairbanks, AK 99703, USA
Heidi Strader: Predictive Services at the Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, Alaska Fire Service, Fairbanks, AK 99703, USA
Christine Waigl: Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
James White: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Alison York: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA
Robert Ziel: International Arctic Research Center, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 1, 1-15

Abstract: The late-season extreme fire activity in Southcentral Alaska during 2019 was highly unusual and consequential. Firefighting operations had to be extended by a month in 2019 due to the extreme conditions of hot summer temperature and prolonged drought. The ongoing fires created poor air quality in the region containing most of Alaska’s population, leading to substantial impacts to public health. Suppression costs totaled over $70 million for Southcentral Alaska. This study’s main goals are to place the 2019 season into historical context, provide an attribution analysis, and assess future changes in wildfire risk in the region. The primary tools are meteorological observations and climate model simulations from the NCAR CESM Large Ensemble (LENS). The 2019 fire season in Southcentral Alaska included the hottest and driest June–August season over the 1979–2019 period. The LENS simulation analysis suggests that the anthropogenic signal of increased fire risk had not yet emerged in 2019 because of the CESM’s internal variability, but that the anthropogenic signal will emerge by the 2040–2080 period. The effect of warming temperatures dominates the effect of enhanced precipitation in the trend towards increased fire risk.

Keywords: boreal forest; wildland fire; climate change; drought; PM2.5; Buildup Index; SPEI; RCP 8.5; LENS; temperature; precipitation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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