A Conceptual Model Framework for Mapping, Analyzing and Managing Supply–Demand Mismatches of Ecosystem Services in Agricultural Landscapes

Mostafa Shaaban, Carmen Schwartz, Joseph Macpherson and Annette Piorr
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Mostafa Shaaban: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Carmen Schwartz: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Joseph Macpherson: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany
Annette Piorr: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Eberswalder Straße 84, 15374 Müncheberg, Germany

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 2, 1-19

Abstract: Appreciation for agricultural sustainability and ecosystem services (ESS) has received considerable attention from the scientific community. However, research has not yet systematically and sufficiently considered the spatial dimension of ESS trade-offs as a source of conflicts. Moreover, approaches for ESS management that address a wide range of beneficiaries and their interactions at landscape scale are lacking. Our main research question is how to motivate different beneficiaries of agricultural landscapes to cooperate in reducing supply–demand mismatches and accompanied conflicts, as well as to assess how different scenarios would impact relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We present a novel and conceptual integrated model in which we employ a combination of three methodological tools: participatory geographic information system (PGIS), agent-based modelling (ABM) and a Bayesian belief network (BBN). The objective of our model simulation is to identify and manage site-specific spatial trade-off patterns and to provide decision support for shifting competitive behavior of individual stakeholders in satisfying their demand for ESS to a collective and cooperative scheme, while jointly striving to attain relevant targets outlined in the SDGs. Attached to this work is a short video depicting our conceptual model. We strongly suggest that tackling a complex social-ecological system necessitates a highly integrated modelling approach that fosters the transition from farm- to landscape-scale management, from individualistic to collective action, and from competitive to cooperative behavior.

Keywords: future landscapes; participatory GIS; agent-based modelling; Bayesian belief network; land use conflicts; sustainable development goals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:2:p:131-:d:489552

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