Three Decades of Land Cover Change in East Africa

Eric L. Bullock, Sean P. Healey, Zhiqiang Yang, Phoebe Oduor, Noel Gorelick, Steve Omondi, Edward Ouko and Warren B. Cohen
Additional contact information
Eric L. Bullock: US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT 84401, USA
Sean P. Healey: US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT 84401, USA
Zhiqiang Yang: US Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Ogden, UT 84401, USA
Phoebe Oduor: Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi 00618, Kenya
Noel Gorelick: Google Switzerland, 8002 Zurich, Switzerland
Steve Omondi: Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi 00618, Kenya
Edward Ouko: Regional Centre for Mapping of Resources for Development, Nairobi 00618, Kenya
Warren B. Cohen: USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 2, 1-15

Abstract: Population growth rates in Sub-Saharan East Africa are among the highest in the world, creating increasing pressure for land cover conversion. To date, however, there has been no comprehensive assessment of regional land cover change, and most long-term trends have not yet been quantified. Using a designed sample of satellite-based observations of historical land cover change, we estimate the areas and trends in nine land cover classes from 1998 to 2017 in Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia. Our analysis found an 18,154,000 (±1,580,000) ha, or 34.8%, increase in the area of cropland in East Africa. Conversion occurred primarily from Open Grasslands, Wooded Grasslands, and Open Forests, causing a large-scale reduction in woody vegetation classes. We observed far more conversion (by approximately 20 million hectares) of woody classes to less-woody classes than succession in the direction of increasing trees and shrubs. Spatial patterns within our sample highlight regional land cover conversion hotspots, such as the Central Zambezian Miombo Woodlands, as potential areas of concern related to the conservation of natural ecosystems. Our findings reflect a rapidly growing population that is moving into new areas, with a 43.5% increase in the area of Settlements over the three-decade period. Our results show the areas and ecoregions most impacted by three decades of human development, both spatially and statistically.

Keywords: land cover change; TimeSync; East Africa; Landsat; statistical inference; development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/2/150/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/2/150/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:2:p:150-:d:492257

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().