Current and Future Land Use Characters of a National Central City in Eco-Fragile Region—A Case Study in Xi’an City Based on FLUS Model

Dingrao Feng, Wenkai Bao, Meichen Fu, Min Zhang and Yiyu Sun
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Dingrao Feng: School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Wenkai Bao: Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Meichen Fu: School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Min Zhang: School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Yiyu Sun: School of Urban Planning and Design, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen 518055, China

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 3, 1-25

Abstract: Land use change plays a key role in terrestrial systems and drives the process of ecological pattern change. It is important to investigate the process of land use change, predict land use patterns, and reveal the characteristics of land use dynamics. In this study, we adopted the Markov model and future land use (FLUS) model to predict the future land use conditions in Xi’an city. Furthermore, we investigated the characteristics of land use change from a novel perspective, i.e., via establishment of a complex network model. This model captured the characteristics of the land use system during different periods. The results indicated that urban expansion and cropland loss played an important role in land use pattern change. The future gravity center of urban development moved along the opposite direction to that from 2000 to 2015 in Xi’an city. Although the rate of urban expansion declined in the future, urban expansion remained the primary driver of land use change. The primary urban development directions were east-southeast (ENE), north-northeast (NNE) and west-southwest (WSW) from 1990 to 2000, 2000 to 2015, and 2015 to 2030, respectively. In fact, cropland played a vital role in land use dynamics regarding all land use types, and the stability of the land use system decreased in the future. Our study provides future land use patterns and a novel perspective to better understand land use change.

Keywords: land use change; FLUS model; complex network model; simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10)

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