Modeling Future Land Use Development: A Lithuanian Case

Gintautas Mozgeris and Daiva Juknelienė
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Gintautas Mozgeris: Agriculture Academy, Vytautas Magnus University, Studentų Str. 11, LT-53361 Akademija, 44248 Kauna, Lithuania
Daiva Juknelienė: Agriculture Academy, Vytautas Magnus University, Studentų Str. 11, LT-53361 Akademija, 44248 Kauna, Lithuania

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 4, 1-21

Abstract: Effective management decisions regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may be hampered by the lack of scientific tools for modeling future land use change. This study addresses methodological principles for land use development scenario modeling assumed for use in processes of GHG accounting and management. Associated land use policy implications in Lithuania are also discussed. Data on land uses, available from the National Forest Inventory (NFI) and collected for GHG accounting from the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector in the country, as well as freely available geographic information, were tested as an input for modeling land use development in the country. The modeling was implemented using the TerrSet Land Change Modeler. Calibration of the modeling approach using historical land use data indicated that land use types important for GHG management in the LULUCF sector were predicted with an accuracy above 80% during a five-year period into the future, while the prediction accuracy for forest and built-up land was 96% or more. Based on several land management scenarios tested, it was predicted that the LULUCF sector in Lithuania will accumulate CO 2 , with the forest land use type contributing most to CO 2 absorption. Key measures to improve the GHG balance and carbon stock changes were suggested to be the afforestation of abandoned or unused agricultural land and prevention of the conversion of grassland into producing land.

Keywords: land use; land use change; scenario; carbon stock changes; simulation; forest; producing land; grassland (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:4:p:360-:d:528060

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