Simulation of Spatiotemporal Relationship between COVID-19 Propagation and Regional Economic Development in China

Dongya Liu, Xinqi Zheng and Lei Zhang
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Dongya Liu: School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
Xinqi Zheng: School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China
Lei Zhang: School of Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Beijing 100083, China

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 6, 1-15

Abstract: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) propagation in 2019 posed serious threats and challenges to human public health and safety. Currently, COVID-19 is still not effectively controlled in certain countries and regions. This study combines the traditional susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model, system dynamics (SD) model, and cellular automata (CA) model to construct a spatiotemporal dynamics pandemic model (SDPM). The SDPM is used to dynamically depict the spatiotemporal diffusion and outbreak of COVID-19 through research on the relationship between epidemic spread and regional development. The results show that: (1) There is a positive correlation between regional development and epidemic spread. The more developed the regional economy, especially in areas with short-range population migration from Hubei Province, the more severe the epidemic spread; and (2) The spatial isolation and control measures adopted by the government can effectively prevent the COVID-19 spread. The results explore the relationship between COVID-19 spread and regional economic development by studying the spatial and temporal transmission characteristics of COVID-19, and provide a scientific reference for the government to formulate reasonable response measures.

Keywords: COVID-19; SEIR model; system dynamics model; cellular automata model; spatiotemporal relationship (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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