Toward a Dualistic Growth? Population Increase and Land-Use Change in Rome, Italy

Leonardo Bianchini, Gianluca Egidi, Ahmed Alhuseen, Adele Sateriano, Sirio Cividino, Matteo Clemente and Vito Imbrenda
Additional contact information
Leonardo Bianchini: Department of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences (DAFNE), Tuscia University, Via San Camillo de Lellis, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy
Gianluca Egidi: Department of Agricultural and Forestry Sciences (DAFNE), Tuscia University, Via San Camillo de Lellis, I-01100 Viterbo, Italy
Ahmed Alhuseen: Global Change Research Institute CAS, Lipova 9, 370 05 Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
Adele Sateriano: Independent Researcher, I-00184 Rome, Italy
Sirio Cividino: Department of Agriculture, University of Udine, Via del Cotonificio 114, I-33100 Udine, Italy
Matteo Clemente: Department of Planning, Design and Architectural Technologies, University of Rome ‘La Sapienza’, Via E. Gianturco 2, I-00186 Rome, Italy
Vito Imbrenda: IMAA—CNR (Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis—Italian National Research Council), c.da Santa Loja snc, I-85050 Tito Scalo, Italy

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 7, 1-14

Abstract: The spatial mismatch between population growth and settlement expansion is at the base of current models of urban growth. Empirical evidence is increasingly required to inform planning measures promoting urban containment in the context of a stable (or declining) population. In these regards, per-capita indicators of land-use change can be adopted with the aim at evaluating long-term sustainability of urbanization processes. The present study assesses spatial variations in per-capita indicators of land-use change in Rome, Central Italy, at five years (1949, 1974, 1999, 2008, and 2016) with the final objective of quantifying the mismatch between urban expansion and population growth. Originally specialized in agricultural productions, Rome’s metropolitan area is a paradigmatic example of dispersed urban expansion in the Mediterranean basin. By considering multiple land-use dynamics, per-capita indicators of landscape change delineated three distinctive waves of growth corresponding with urbanization, suburbanization, and a more mixed stage with counter-urbanization and re-urbanization impulses. By reflecting different socioeconomic contexts on a local scale, urban fabric and forests were identified as the ‘winner’ classes, expanding homogeneously over time at the expense of cropland. Agricultural landscapes experienced a more heterogeneous trend with arable land and pastures declining systematically and more fragmented land classes (e.g., vineyards and olive groves) displaying stable (or slightly increasing) trends. The continuous reduction of per-capita surface area of cropland that’s supports a reduced production base, which is now insufficient to satisfy the rising demand for fresh food at the metropolitan scale, indicates the unsustainability of the current development in Rome and more generally in the whole Mediterranean basin, a region specialized traditionally in (proximity) agricultural productions.

Keywords: metropolitan expansion; per-capita urban area; per-capita cropland; land mismatch; population; Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:7:p:749-:d:596310

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