Long-Term Dynamic of Land Reclamation and Its Impact on Coastal Flooding: A Case Study in Xiamen, China

Lilai Xu, Shengping Ding, Vilas Nitivattananon and Jianxiong Tang
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Lilai Xu: Institute for Disaster Management and Reconstruction, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China
Shengping Ding: Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China
Vilas Nitivattananon: Asian Institute of Technology, Pathum Thani 12120, Thailand
Jianxiong Tang: Xiamen Municipal Natural Resources and Planning Bureau, Xiamen 361012, China

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 8, 1-18

Abstract: While land reclaimed from the sea meets the land demand for coastal development, it simultaneously causes socio-economic systems to be prone to coastal flooding induced by storm surges and sea-level rise. Current studies have seldom linked reclamation with coastal flood impact assessment, hindering the provision of accurate information to support coastal flood risk management and adaptation. This study, using Xiamen, China as a case study, incorporates the spatiotemporal dynamics of reclamation into a coastal flood impact model, in order to investigate the long-term influence of reclamation activities on coastal flood inundation and the consequent exposure of the population to coastal flooding. We find that rapid population growth, continual economic development and urbanization drive a substantial logarithmic increase in coastal reclamation. Historical and future expansions of seaward land reclamation are found to cause dramatic surges in the expected annual inundation (EAI) and the expected annual population (EAP) exposed to coastal flooding. In Xiamen, EAI is estimated to increase by 440.2% from 1947 to 2035, owing to continuing land reclamation. Consequently, the population living in the flooded area has also increased sharply: the EAP of total population is estimated to rise from 0.8% in 1947 to 4.7% in 2035, where reclamation contributes over 80% of this increase. Moreover, a future 10 cm sea-level rise in 2035 will lead to extra 5.73% and 8.15% increases in EAI and EAP, respectively, and is expected to cause massive permanent submersion in the new reclamation zone. Our findings emphasize an integration of hard structures and nature-based solutions for building resilient coasts.

Keywords: reclamation; coastal flooding; population exposure; sea-level rise; nature-based solutions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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