Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal?

Cristina Andrade, André Fonseca and João Andrade Santos
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Cristina Andrade: Natural Hazards Research Center (NHRC.ipt), Instituto Politécnico de Tomar, 2300-313 Tomar, Portugal
André Fonseca: Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal
João Andrade Santos: Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environmental and Biological Sciences (CITAB), Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro (UTAD), 5001-801 Vila Real, Portugal

Land, 2021, vol. 10, issue 8, 1-16

Abstract: Land and climate are strongly connected through multiple interface processes and climate change may lead to significant changes in land use. In this study, high-resolution observational gridded datasets are used to assess modifications in the Köppen–Geiger and Worldwide Bioclimatic (WBCS) Classification Systems, from 1950–1979 to 1990–2019 in Portugal. A compound bioclimatic-shift exposure index (BSEI) is also defined to identify the most exposed regions to recent climatic changes. The temporal evolution of land cover with vineyards and olive groves between 1990 and 2018, as well as correlations with areas with bioclimatic shifts, are analyzed. Results show an increase of CSa Warm Mediterranean climate with hot summer of 18.1%, followed by a decrease in CSb (warm summer) climate of −17.8%. The WBCS Temperate areas also reveal a decrease of −5.11%. Arid and semi-arid ombrotypes areas increased, conversely humid to sub-humid ombrotypes decreased. Thermotypic horizons depict a shift towards warmer classes. BSEI highlights the most significant shifts in northwestern Portugal. Vineyards have been displaced towards regions that are either the coolest/humid, in the northwest, or the warmest/driest, in the south. For oliviculture, the general trend for a relative shift towards cool/humid areas suggests an attempt of the sector to adapt, despite the cover area growth in the south. As vineyards and olive groves in southern Portugal are commonly irrigated, options for the intensification of these crops in this region may threaten the already scarce water resources and challenge the future sustainability of these sectors.

Keywords: Köppen–Geiger climate classification; Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS); bioclimates; thermotypes; ombrotypes; vineyards; olive groves; Portugal (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:10:y:2021:i:8:p:869-:d:617253

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