Qualitative Modeling for Bridging Expert-Knowledge and Social-Ecological Dynamics of an East African Savanna

Maximilien Cosme, Christelle Hély, Franck Pommereau, Paolo Pasquariello, Christel Tiberi, Anna Treydte and Cédric Gaucherel
Additional contact information
Maximilien Cosme: BotAnique et Modélisation de L’Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations, Institut National de Recherche pour L’Agriculture, L’Alimentation et L’Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, University of Montpellier, 34398 Montpellier, France
Christelle Hély: Institut des Sciences de l’Évolution de Montpellier, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, École Pratique des Hautes Études, University of Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier, France
Franck Pommereau: Informatique, BioInformatique, Systèmes Complexes, University of Évry Paris-Saclay, 91037 Évry, France
Paolo Pasquariello: Istituto Oikos, Via Crescenzago 1, 20134 Milano, Italy
Christel Tiberi: Geosciences Montpellier, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, University of Montpellier, 34095 Montpellier, France
Anna Treydte: Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology, NM-AIST, Arusha P.O. Box 447, Tanzania
Cédric Gaucherel: BotAnique et Modélisation de L’Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations, Institut National de Recherche pour L’Agriculture, L’Alimentation et L’Environnement, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, University of Montpellier, 34398 Montpellier, France

Land, 2021, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-26

Abstract: Sub-Saharan social-ecological systems are undergoing changes in environmental conditions, including modifications in rainfall pattern and biodiversity loss. Consequences of such changes depend on complex causal chains which call for integrated management strategies whose efficiency could benefit from ecosystem dynamic modeling. However, ecosystem models often require lots of quantitative information for estimating parameters, which is often unavailable. Alternatively, qualitative modeling frameworks have proved useful for explaining ecosystem responses to perturbations, while only requiring qualitative information about social-ecological interactions and events and providing more general predictions due to their validity for wide ranges of parameter values. In this paper, we propose the Ecological Discrete-Event Network (EDEN), an innovative qualitative dynamic modeling framework based on “if-then” rules generating non-deterministic dynamics. Based on expert knowledge, observations, and literature, we use EDEN to assess the effect of permanent changes in surface water and herbivores diversity on vegetation and socio-economic transitions in an East African savanna. Results show that water availability drives changes in vegetation and socio-economic transitions, while herbivore functional groups have highly contrasted effects depending on the group. This first use of EDEN in a savanna context is promising for bridging expert knowledge and ecosystem modeling.

Keywords: ecosystem dynamics; discrete-event model; qualitative modeling; boolean model; state-and-transition model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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