Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Location Suitability and Spatial Footprint of Apple and Kiwifruit

Indrakumar Vetharaniam (), Levente Timar, C. Jill Stanley, Karin Müller, Carlo van den Dijssel and Brent Clothier
Additional contact information
Indrakumar Vetharaniam: The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Hamilton 3214, New Zealand
C. Jill Stanley: The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Clyde 9391, New Zealand
Karin Müller: The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Hamilton 3214, New Zealand
Carlo van den Dijssel: The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Palmerston North 4410, New Zealand
Brent Clothier: The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Palmerston North 4410, New Zealand

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 10, 1-27

Abstract: The threats and opportunities faced by primary production industries from future climate changes can be adequately prepared for only with the guidance of model projections that can assist the development of robust policy and climate adaptation plans by governments and industries. We used continuous suitability models capable of reflecting incremental changes to project the suitability of locations across New Zealand for cultivating apple and kiwifruit in the mid- and late-century. These projections used future weather data from climate model simulations for two contrasting greenhouse gas (GHG) pathways: stringent GHG mitigation and unabated GHG emissions. To improve the suitability of the modelled temperature data, specifically for use with biologically driven, crop suitability models, we developed new bias-variance adjustments that preserved climate change signals within the data. Preliminary projections of land use across a range of alternative primary industries were obtained from a multinomial logit model incorporating continuous suitability scores as predictors. We refined the preliminary land-use projections by providing them as inputs into a simulation model of land use incorporating other drivers and constraints. This methodology provides a means for projecting future land use and the spatial footprints of primary industries, based on biological and econometric considerations, under different modelled climate change scenarios.

Keywords: climate change; econometric modelling; suitability modelling; horticulture; GIS; land use (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/10/1639/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/10/1639/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:10:p:1639-:d:923338

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().