Demographic Change and the Urban–Rural Divide: Understanding the Role of Density and Agglomeration in Fertility Transitions

Samaneh Sadat Nickayin, Bogdana Nosova, Rosario Turco, Massimiliano Giacalone and Luca Salvati ()
Additional contact information
Samaneh Sadat Nickayin: Planning and Design Faculty, Agricultural University of Iceland, Hvanneyri, 311 Borgarbyggð, Iceland
Bogdana Nosova: Department of Social Communications, Institute of Journalism, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, 64/13, Volodymyrska Street, 01601 Kyiv, Ukraine
Rosario Turco: Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Centre for Forestry and Wood, Contrada Li Rocchi Vermicelli, I-87036 Rende, Italy
Massimiliano Giacalone: Dipartimento di Economia, Università degli Studi della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli, Corso Gran Priorato di Malta, I-81043 Capua, Italy
Luca Salvati: Dipartimento di Metodi e Modelli per l’Economia, il Territorio e la Finanza, Facoltà di Economia, Sapienza University of Rome, Via del Castro Laurenziano 9, I-00161 Rome, Italy

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 11, 1-16

Abstract: Assuming fertility variations across urban–rural gradients, our study focuses on the traditional polarization in urban and rural fertility, offering a refined interpretation of demographic processes associated with population density. More specifically, we tested the intimate relationship between local fertility and population density, comparing the outcomes of a classical urban–rural model (reflecting a linear relationship between the two variables) with those of a more complex quadratic model (implying the so-called ‘suburban fertility hypothesis’) in Greece. We considered fertility dynamics in three districts (urban, suburban, and rural) of 51 Greek prefectures for the last two decades (2000–2009 and 2010–2019) and controlled for the diverging impact of local contexts at different population density levels. Taken as a measure of ‘maturity’ of regional systems, urban fertility surpassed rural fertility in almost all prefectures of Greece. An additional sign of maturity in metropolitan systems indicates that suburban birth rates are higher than urban birth rates in prefectures with high population density (Athens, Thessaloniki, Heraklion, and Patras). The regression outcomes document a specific response of fertility to regional development, evidencing a spatially differentiated shift from classical urban–rural disparities toward a more complex model with the emergence of suburban poles. From this perspective, fertility divides reflect the evolutions of socioeconomic forces (more or less rapidly) along the urban gradient.

Keywords: population dynamics; fertility differentials; local context; concentration; Greece (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/11/1988/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/11/1988/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:11:p:1988-:d:964697

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().