A Forward Future-Based Approach to Optimizing Agriculture and Climate Change Adaptation in Lower Eastern Kenya

Lilian Wangui Ndungu (), John Bosco Kyalo Kiema, David Nyangau Siriba, Denis Macharia Muthike and Samuel Wamathai Ndungu
Additional contact information
Lilian Wangui Ndungu: Department of Geospatial and Space Technologies, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O. Box 30197, Kenya
John Bosco Kyalo Kiema: Department of Geospatial and Space Technologies, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O. Box 30197, Kenya
David Nyangau Siriba: Department of Geospatial and Space Technologies, University of Nairobi, Nairobi P.O. Box 30197, Kenya
Denis Macharia Muthike: Mortenson Center in Global Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA
Samuel Wamathai Ndungu: School of Pure and Applied Sciences, Kenyatta University, Nairobi P.O. Box 43844-00100, Kenya

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 12, 1-14

Abstract: Kenya’s vulnerability to climate variability and change has been compounded by dependence on rain-fed agriculture with constrained capacity to adapt, a rapidly growing population, low-mechanized and low-input smallholder agricultural systems, and compromised soil fertility. The Ukraine war, COVID-19 and the desert locust invasion have only amplified the prevailing sensitivity to shocks in the agriculture sector, creating an emphasis on the need to strengthen local agricultural production to reduce reliance on imports. This paper seeks to assess the opportunities for improving agriculture adaptation and resilience based on future expected changes in climate, length of the growing period and agro-ecologies. The study uses 2020 as the baseline year and explores changes in agro-ecological zones (AEZs) in “near future” 2040 through two representative concentration pathways, 4.5 and 8.5, representing a medium carbon emissions and a dire emissions future, respectively. Google Earth Engine and R Statistics are used in data-processing. Down-scaled climate projections from CIMP5 are used for future analyses combined with static soil suitability and drainage data. Fuzzy logic is used to normalize inputs and compute the agro-ecological zones (AEZ). Interesting results emerge from the study that validate the hypothesis that the seasons and production potential are shifting. Lowland drylands will experience an increasingly long growing period, creating the potential for diversifying production systems from rangelands to agro-pastoral systems, with the capacity to grow more drought-resistant crops and the potential to take advantage of increased runoff for water harvesting. Midland highland areas, which form part of the food basket areas, have already started experiencing a reduction in the length of the growing period and agricultural potential. In these areas, resilience mechanisms will need to consider the expected future reduction in rain-fed agricultural potential, gendered preferences, convergence of technology and indigenous coping mechanisms, and drought-resilience-focused diversification.

Keywords: AEZ; Kenya; agro-ecologies; lower eastern; adaptation; resilience; predictions; future; climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/12/2172/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/11/12/2172/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:12:p:2172-:d:989544

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().