Simulating Spatiotemporal Changes in Land Use and Land Cover of the North-Western Himalayan Region Using Markov Chain Analysis

Owais Bashir, Shabir Ahmad Bangroo, Wei Guo (), Gowhar Meraj, Gebiaw T. Ayele, Nasir Bashir Naikoo, Shahid Shafai, Perminder Singh, Mohammad Muslim, Habitamu Taddese, Irfan Gani and Shafeeq Ur Rahman ()
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Owais Bashir: Division of Soil Science, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar 190025, India
Shabir Ahmad Bangroo: Division of Soil Science, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar 190025, India
Wei Guo: Farmland Irrigation Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinxiang 453003, China
Gowhar Meraj: Department of Ecology, Environment and Remote Sensing, Government of Jammu and Kashmir, Srinagar 190018, India
Gebiaw T. Ayele: Australian Rivers Institute and School of Engineering and Built Environment, Griffith University, Nathan 4111, Australia
Nasir Bashir Naikoo: Division of Soil Science, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar 190025, India
Shahid Shafai: Centre for Space Science and Technology Education in Asia and the Pacific, Dehradun 248001, India
Perminder Singh: Division of Soil Science, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Shalimar 190025, India
Mohammad Muslim: Department of Environmental Science, University of Kashmir Hazratbal Srinagar, Srinagar 190006, India
Habitamu Taddese: Wondo Genet College of Forestry and Natural Resources, Hawassa University, Shashemene P.O. Box 128, Ethiopia
Irfan Gani: Division of floriculture, Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir, Srinagar 190025, India
Shafeeq Ur Rahman: School of Environment and Civil Engineering, Dongguan University of Technology, Dongguan 523808, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 12, 1-18

Abstract: Spatial variabilities and drivers of land use and land cover (LULC) change over time and are crucial for determining the region’s economic viability and ecological functionality. The North-Western Himalayan (NWH) regions have witnessed drastic changes in LULC over the last 50 years, as a result of which their ecological diversity has been under significant threat. There is a need to understand how LULC change has taken place so that appropriate conservation measures can be taken well in advance to understand the implications of the current trends of changing LULC. This study has been carried out in the Baramulla district of the North-Western Himalayas to assess its current and future LULC changes and determine the drivers responsible for future policy decisions. Using Landsat 2000, 2010, and 2020 satellite imagery, we performed LULC classification of the study area using the maximum likelihood supervised classification. The land-use transition matrix, Markov chain model, and CA-Markov model were used to determine the spatial patterns and temporal variation of LULC for 2030. The CA-Markov model was first used to predict the land cover for 2020, which was then verified by the actual land cover of 2020 (Kappa coefficient of 0.81) for the model’s validation. After calibration and validation of the model, LULC was predicted for the year 2030. Between the years 2000 and 2020, it was found that horticulture, urbanization, and built-up areas increased, while snow cover, forest cover, agricultural land, and water bodies all decreased. The significant drivers of LULC changes were economic compulsions, climate variability, and increased human population. The analysis finding of the study highlighted that technical, financial, policy, or legislative initiatives are required to restore fragile NWH regions experiencing comparable consequences.

Keywords: land cover; spatial variability; CA-Markov model; cellular automata; probability matrix (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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