Spatial Patterns and Driving Factors of Rural Population Loss under Urban–Rural Integration Development: A Micro-Scale Study on the Village Level in a Hilly Region

Yaqiu Liu, Xiaoqian Zhang, Meng Xu, Xinghao Zhang, Bowen Shan and Ailing Wang
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Yaqiu Liu: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
Xiaoqian Zhang: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
Meng Xu: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
Xinghao Zhang: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
Bowen Shan: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China
Ailing Wang: College of Resources and Environment, Shandong Agricultural University, Taian 271018, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 1, 1-20

Abstract: Under the background of urban–rural integration, balanced development between urban and rural areas has been increasingly advocated. Rural population loss (RPL) is not only due to the laws of social and economic development but also the comprehensive action of natural, social, and economic factors. Taking 774 administrative villages in Laiyang County, which is in a hilly region, as our research area, we comprehensively used spatial analysis and geographic detectors to explore the spatial characteristics and driving factors of RPL, which was significantly correlated with rural planning. The research demonstrated that: (1) The rural population in Laiyang County generally had a low level of RPL (1.9%), but each village varied greatly. The village with the greatest RPL had a rate of 56%. The RPL between urban and rural areas, towns and streets, and villages and villages were unbalanced, and rural population flow mainly occurred between urban and rural areas. (2) RPL in Laiyang County was generally low in the central urban area and high in the northern and southern areas. Population loss presents agglomeration globally and high–low agglomeration locally. (3) The distance from village to county, elevation, cultivated land quantity, collective economic income, village area, and ecological service value were the key factors influencing RPL in Laiyang County. When comparing the dominant factors, the interaction between collective income and elevation was the strongest. Exploring the spatial characteristics and influencing factors of RPL provided us with ideas for the classified promotion of rural revitalization, preparation of rural development planning, and promotion of the integrated development of urban and rural areas.

Keywords: rural population loss; spatial characteristics; hilly regions; urban–rural integration development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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