Transportation and Air Quality Perspectives and Projections in a Mediterranean Country, the Case of Greece

Georgios C. Spyropoulos, Panagiotis T. Nastos, Konstantinos P. Moustris and Konstantinos J. Chalvatzis
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Georgios C. Spyropoulos: Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, GR-15784 Athens, Greece
Panagiotis T. Nastos: Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment, Department of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, GR-15784 Athens, Greece
Konstantinos P. Moustris: Laboratory of Soft Energy Applications & Environmental Protection, Mechanical Engineering Department, University of West Attica, 250 Thivon and P. Ralli Str., GR-12244 Athens, Greece
Konstantinos J. Chalvatzis: Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich Business School, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 2, 1-27

Abstract: This study provides a thorough review and analysis of the evolution of the Greek vehicle fleet over the last ~30 years, which is next used for the generation of high granularity fleet projections, the assessment of associated air pollution and the estimation of relevant environmental benefits by 2030. The integrated methodology developed takes also into account vehicle clustering and the Brown’s Double Simple Exponential Smoothing technique that, together with the adoption of COPERT-based emission factors, allow for the estimation of the anticipated emissions in 2030. Expected 2030 emissions levels suggest a reduction across all pollutants compared to 2018, ranging from 3.7% for PM 10 to 54.5% for NMVOC (and 46% for CO, 14% for SO 2 , 28% for NO X and 21% for CO 2 ). We find that Greece is on track with national goals concerning the reduction of air pollution from the transportation sector, which designates the positive contribution anticipated by EVs and new, “greener” vehicles, and sets new challenges for the further improvement of the sector beyond the 2030 outlook.

Keywords: air pollution; transportation policy; vehicle fleet projections; electric vehicles; Exponential Smoothing; Greece (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:11:y:2022:i:2:p:152-:d:727749

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