Modelling Runoff within a Small River Basin under the Changing Climate: A Case Study of Using SWAT in the Bălțata River Basin (The Republic of Moldova)

Igor Sîrodoev, Roman Corobov, Ghennadi Sîrodoev and Ilya Trombitsky
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Igor Sîrodoev: Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, Department of Natural Sciences, Ovidius University of Constanța, 900470 Constanta, Romania
Roman Corobov: Eco-TIRAS International Association of River Keepers, MD-2012 Chișinău, Moldova
Ghennadi Sîrodoev: Institute of Ecology and Geography, MD-2028 Chișinău, Moldova
Ilya Trombitsky: Eco-TIRAS International Association of River Keepers, MD-2012 Chișinău, Moldova

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 2, 1-22

Abstract: The article focuses on modelling surface runoff in a small river basin taking into consideration climate change projections. The runoff was modelled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), while three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) were considered for modelling the future climate. Despite the identified uncertainties, all the scenarios pointed towards decreasing runoff and losing available water resources. The expected runoff of the case study basin (Bălțata River in the Republic of Moldova) will decrease under all considered scenarios. The risk of diminishing runoff will be low in the middle-term perspective and moderate in the long-term one, if considered from the yearly changes. However, there are months with a high risk of diminishing runoff, especially important for proper crop production. While in the middle-term perspective, traditional adaptation measures can be used, in the long-term one, a totally new approach should be sought.

Keywords: surface runoff; climate scenarios; water availability; Bălțata River Basin; Republic of Moldova (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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