Analysis of Effects of Recent Changes in Hydrothermal Conditions on Vegetation in Central Asia

Xiuwei Xing, Jing Qian, Xi Chen, Chaoliang Chen, Jiayu Sun, Shujie Wei, Duman Yimamaidi and Zhahan Zhanar
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Xiuwei Xing: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Jing Qian: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Xi Chen: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Chaoliang Chen: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Jiayu Sun: Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China
Shujie Wei: Shenzhen Institute of Advanced Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518055, China
Duman Yimamaidi: Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
Zhahan Zhanar: Department of International Relations, Kazakh Agro Technical University named Saken Seifullin, Nur-Sultan 010000, Kazakhstan

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 3, 1-27

Abstract: Understanding the relationship of hydrothermal conditions to vegetation changes is conducive to revealing the feedback mechanism connecting climate variations and vegetation. Based on the methods of Theil–Sen median analysis, and the Mann–Kendall trend test, this research investigated the spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics in Central Asia using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and grid climate data from 1982 to 2015. Further, the contributions of hydrothermal conditions to vegetation changes were quantified using a boosted regression tree model (BRT). The results demonstrated that the spatiotemporal characteristics of vegetation dynamics exhibited significant differences in different seasons, and most pixels showed increasing trends in the growing season and spring. Boosted regression tree analysis indicated that the contributions of hydrothermal conditions to vegetation dynamics exhibited temporal and spatial heterogeneity. During the annual, growing season, and summer examination periods, the contribution value of the increase in warming conditions (temperature or potential evapotranspiration) to vegetation degradation in the region due to the hydrothermal tradeoff effect (water) was 49.92%, 44.10%, and 44.95%, respectively. Moreover, the increase in warming conditions promoted vegetation growth, with a contribution value of 59.73% in spring. The contribution value of the increase in wetting conditions (precipitation or soil moisture) to vegetation growth was 48.46% in northern Central Asia, but the contribution value of the increase in warming conditions to vegetation degradation was 59.49% in Ustyurt Upland and the Aral Sea basin in autumn. However, the increase in warming conditions facilitated irrigation vegetation growth, with a contribution value of 59.86% in winter. The increasing potential evapotranspiration was the main factor affecting vegetation degradation in the Kyzylkum Desert and Karakum Desert during the annual, growing season, and autumn examination periods. Precipitation and soil moisture played decisive roles in vegetation dynamics in northern Central Asia during the growing season, summer, and autumn. This research provides reference information for ecological restoration in Central Asia.

Keywords: NDVI; vegetation variations; hydrothermal conditions; boosted regression tree; Central Asia (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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