Forecasting Urban Land Use Change Based on Cellular Automata and the PLUS Model

Linfeng Xu, Xuan Liu, Tong De, Zhixin Liu, Lirong Yin and Wenfeng Zheng
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Linfeng Xu: School of Life Science, Shaoxing University, Shaoxing 312000, China
Xuan Liu: School of Public Affairs and Administration, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China
Tong De: Laboratory for Urban Future, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School, Shenzhen 518055, China
Zhixin Liu: School of Life Science, Shaoxing University, Shaoxing 312000, China
Lirong Yin: Department of Geography and Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
Wenfeng Zheng: School of Automation, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 610054, China

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 5, 1-16

Abstract: Nowadays, cities meet numerous sustainable development challenges in facing growing urban populations and expanding urban areas. The monitoring and simulation of land use and land-cover change have become essential tools for understanding and managing urbanization. This paper interprets and predicts the expansion of seven different land use types in the study area, using the PLUS model, which combines the Land use Expansion Analysis Strategy (LEAS) and the CA model, based on the multi-class random patch seed (CARS) model. By choosing a variety of driving factors, the PLUS model simulates urban expansion in the metropolitan area of Hangzhou. The accuracy of the simulation, manifested as the kappa coefficient of urban land, increased to more than 84%, and the kappa coefficient of other land use types was more than 90%. To a certain extent, the PLUS model used in this study solves the CA model’s deficiencies in conversion rule mining strategy and landscape dynamic change simulation strategy. The results show that various types of land use changes obtained using this method have a high degree of accuracy and can be used to simulate urban expansion, especially over short periods.

Keywords: urban expansion; LEAS; CARS; land use interpretation; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

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