A Heuristic Method to Evaluate the Effect of Soil Tillage on Slope Stability: A Pilot Case in Central Italy

Evelina Volpe, Stefano Luigi Gariano, Francesca Ardizzone, Federica Fiorucci and Diana Salciarini
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Evelina Volpe: CNR IRPI, Via della Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Stefano Luigi Gariano: CNR IRPI, Via della Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Francesca Ardizzone: CNR IRPI, Via della Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Federica Fiorucci: CNR IRPI, Via della Madonna Alta 126, 06128 Perugia, Italy
Diana Salciarini: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Perugia, Via G. Duranti 93, 06125 Perugia, Italy

Land, 2022, vol. 11, issue 6, 1-15

Abstract: Among the various predisposing factors of rainfall-induced shallow landslides, land use is constantly evolving, being linked to human activities. Between different land uses, improper agricultural practices can have a negative impact on slope stability. Indeed, unsustainable soil tillage can modify the mechanical properties of the soils, leading to a possible increase of the instability phenomena. However, the effects of soil tillage on slope stability are poorly investigated. To address this topic, the PG_TRIGRS model (a probabilistic, geostatistic-based extension of TRIGRS) was applied to a cultivated, landslide-prone area in central Italy, thoroughly studied and periodically monitored through systematic image analysis and field surveys. A heuristic approach was adopted to quantitatively evaluate the effect of soil tillage on the mechanical properties of the soil: after a first run of the model with unbiased parameters, the slope stability analysis was carried out assuming several percentages of reduction of the effective soil cohesion to mimic an increasing impact of soil tillage on the strength conditions. Then, a comparison between observed landslides and the spatial distribution of the probability of failure derived from the application of PG_TRIGRS was carried out. A back analysis with contingency matrix and skill scores was adopted to search for the best compromise between correct and incorrect model outcomes. The results show that soil tillage caused a 20 to 30% reduction in soil cohesion in the analyzed area.

Keywords: land use; landslide modelling; shallow landslides; soil cohesion; soil tillage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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