Simulation and Analysis of Land-Use Change Based on the PLUS Model in the Fuxian Lake Basin (Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, China)

Guoqiang Ma, Qiujie Li, Jinxiu Zhang, Lixun Zhang (), Hua Cheng, Zhengping Ju and Guojun Sun ()
Additional contact information
Guoqiang Ma: College of Ecology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Qiujie Li: Power China Kunming Engneering Corporation Limted, Kunming 650051, China
Jinxiu Zhang: Southwest Investigation and Planning Institute of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Kunming 650031, China
Lixun Zhang: College of Ecology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
Hua Cheng: School of Tourism, Henan Normal University, Xinxiang 453007, China
Zhengping Ju: Southwest Investigation and Planning Institute of State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Kunming 650031, China
Guojun Sun: College of Ecology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Land, 2022, vol. 12, issue 1, 1-18

Abstract: It is essential to study the characteristics of land use change in the Fuxian Lake basin, a plateau lake in Yunnan Province, and to predict the basin’s future trend of land use change for sustaining the key carriers of current national major strategies such as ecological civilization, green development, and rural revitalization. This study used the Fuxian Lake basin as the subject and based on the seven periods of historical land use data, added six driving factors including human and natural factors, applied patches to generate the land-use simulation model (PLUS), and forecasted and analyzed the characteristics of land-use change in the basin in 2048 under the three scenarios of natural trend development, ecological protection, and production protection. The results showed that: (1) the overall simulation accuracy of the model was 79.14%, Kappa index was 0.73, FOM value was 0.29, and the model’s consistency was high. The model can be used to simulate future land-use changes in the Fuxian Lake basin. (2) In the natural development scenario, land-use development and the driving factors in the basin have the following relationship: rainfall and trunk road distance significantly impacted the types of land that emphasize ecological conservation and product development. Elevation and soil distribution characteristics had a significant impact on land types focused mainly on water zones and ecological protection. The land types mainly focused on urban construction were greatly affected by elevation, trunk road distance, GDP per capita, and other factors. (3) The main direction of land-use change in the watershed is the mutual conversion between farmland and forest land, with the continuous expansion of construction land. In the production protection scenario, the area of farmland increased by 44.79 hm 2 . In the ecological protection scenario, the area of arbor forest land increased by 37.85 hm 2 and the area of shrub forest land decreased by 62.37 hm 2 . (4) From the perspective of spatial distribution patterns, the regional hotspot change blocks are mainly concentrated in the north of the basin, along the coast of the north of Fuxian Lake, and the southern land. In general, the PLUS model had good applicability in this study. The simulation results of the different scenarios were in line with the land development in the Fuxian Lake basin and can provide scientific reference for land-space planning, ecological and production land constraints, and coordination of development in the Fuxian Lake basin.

Keywords: land-use change; PLUS model; simulation and prediction; Fuxian Lake basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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