Evolution and Prediction of Urban Fringe Areas Based on Logistic–CA–Markov Models: The Case of Wuhan City

Yan Long, Xi Liu, Shiqi Luo, Tianyue Luo, Siyu Hu, Yuqiao Zheng, Jingmei Shao and Xuejun Liu ()
Additional contact information
Yan Long: School of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
Xi Liu: School of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
Shiqi Luo: School of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
Tianyue Luo: Wuhan Planning & Design Institute (Wuhan Transportation Development Strategy Institute), Wuhan 430010, China
Siyu Hu: School of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
Yuqiao Zheng: School of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
Jingmei Shao: School of Urban Construction, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430065, China
Xuejun Liu: School of Urban Design, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 10, 1-30

Abstract: The urban fringe is the transitional area from rural form to urban form, and it is also the urban space reserve land in the Territorial Spatial Plan. However, few researchers predict its overall evolution and guide the implementation of the Territorial Spatial Plan. This study attempts to explore the dynamic evolution law of urban fringe, analyze its driving factors, predict its future development, and put forward management suggestions for the implementation of the Territorial Spatial Plan. In this paper, the land use data of Wuhan in 2000, 2010 and 2020 are applied to delimit the urban fringe area of Wuhan by means of a sliding t -test. Fifteen driving factors are selected from three dimensions, natural factors, socio-economic factors and traffic accessibility, and brought into the Logistic model to explore the driving factors of its spatial evolution. The CA–Markov model is used to predict the fringe area of Wuhan in 2035. The results show that the transformation of rural hinterland into urban fringe is obviously affected by the distance from railway stations, highways, commercial centers and urban main roads. It is predicted that the outer boundary of Wuhan’s fringe area in 2035 will be basically the same as the planned urban development boundary. In order to realize the intention of land space planning, the development and construction of the northwest of the Huangpi District, the East Lake Scenic Area, and the west side of the Jiangxia District should be restricted. From the perspective of the evolution of the fringe area, this paper puts forward some management suggestions for the implementation of the Territorial Spatial Plan and makes a beneficial attempt in theory and method to understand the development characteristics of the fringe area and promote the implementation of the Territorial Spatial Plan.

Keywords: the urban fringe; dynamic evolution; driving factors; Logistic–CA–Markov model; Wuhan city (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/10/1874/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/12/10/1874/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:10:p:1874-:d:1253613

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().