Soil Organic Carbon Dynamics and Influencing Factors in the Zoige Alpine Wetland from the 1980s to 2020 Based on a Random Forest Model

Haotian Zhang, Jianheng Wang, Yichen Zhang, Hongyu Qian, Zhiyi Xie, Yufu Hu (), Yongjie Huang, Chuan Zhao, Wanli Cheng, Xiaoxuan Feng, Haoran Qi and Siqi Du
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Haotian Zhang: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Jianheng Wang: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Yichen Zhang: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Hongyu Qian: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Zhiyi Xie: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Yufu Hu: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Yongjie Huang: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Chuan Zhao: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Wanli Cheng: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Xiaoxuan Feng: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Haoran Qi: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China
Siqi Du: College of Resources, Sichuan Agricultural University, Chengdu 611130, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 10, 1-20

Abstract: Wetlands provide important ecosystem services, such as water conservation, biodiversity protection, and carbon sequestration. The Zoige alpine wetland is the largest high-altitude swamp in the world and plays a critical role in regional ecological balance and climate change. However, little is known about the fate of its soil organic carbon (SOC) storage. In this study, we estimated the degradation status of the wetland over the past 35 years and used machine learning to investigate the dynamics and driving factors of SOC at different soil depths of the Zoige wetland in 1985, 2000, and 2020. We also simulated the future SOC balance under different scenarios. The results showed that the area of Zoige wetland has degraded by 378.71 km 2 in the past 35 years. Increased precipitation and solar radiation offset the adverse effects of global warming, making the soil act as a carbon sink in the past 35 years. The total SOC storage of the wetland soils in 1985, 2000, and 2020 was estimated to be 2.03 Pg, 2.05 Pg, and 2.21 Pg, respectively, with 46.95% of SOC distributed in the subsoil layers. Climate change was the most important driving factor controlling the SOC storage of the Zoige wetland, explaining 51.33% of the SOC changes in the soil. Temperature change was always the most important factor controlling wetland SOC, and precipitation had a greater impact on the topsoil. Under the temperature control targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, the SOC pool of the Zoige wetland will decrease by 60.21 Tg C and 69.19 Tg C, respectively. Under scenarios of a 10% and 20% increase in precipitation, the wetland soil will accumulate an additional 46.53 Tg C and 118.89 Tg C, respectively. The study results provide important references for the sustainable management of the Zoige wetland under the background of global climate change.

Keywords: SOC; climate change; machine learning; carbon stock; driving factors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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