Early Evidence That Soil Dryness Causes Widespread Decline in Grassland Productivity in China

Panxing He, Yiyan Zeng, Ningfei Wang, Zhiming Han, Xiaoyu Meng, Tong Dong, Xiaoliang Ma, Shangqian Ma, Jun Ma and Zongjiu Sun ()
Additional contact information
Panxing He: Henan Normal University, Xinxiang 453007, China
Yiyan Zeng: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
Ningfei Wang: Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China
Zhiming Han: College of Resources and Environment, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
Xiaoyu Meng: Key Research Insititute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China
Tong Dong: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Western Arid Region Grassland Resources and Ecology, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China
Xiaoliang Ma: Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730020, China
Shangqian Ma: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China
Jun Ma: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science and Ecological Engineering, Fudan University, Shanghai 200438, China
Zongjiu Sun: Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Western Arid Region Grassland Resources and Ecology, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830000, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 2, 1-17

Abstract: The burning of fossil fuels by humans emits large amounts of CO 2 into the atmosphere and strongly affects the Earth’s carbon balance, with grassland ecosystems changing from weak carbon sinks that were previously close to equilibrium to core carbon sinks. Chinese grasslands are located in typical arid–semi-arid and semi-arid climatic regions, and drought events in the soil and atmosphere can have strong and irreversible consequences on the function and structure of Chinese grassland ecosystems. Based on this, we investigated the response of the gross primary production (GPP) of Chinese grasslands to land–atmosphere moisture constraints, using GPP data simulated through four terrestrial ecosystem models and introduced copula functions and Bayesian equations. The main results were as follows: (1) Soil moisture trends were not significant, and changes were dominated by interannual variability. The detrended warm-season SM correlated with GPP at 0.48 and 0.63 for the historical and future periods, respectively; thus, soil moisture is the critical water stress that regulates interannual variability in Chinese grassland GPP. (2) The positive correlation between shallow SM (0–50 cm) and GPP was higher (r = 0.62). Shallow-soil moisture is the main soil layer that constrains GPP, and the soil moisture decrease in shallow layers is much more likely to cause GPP decline in Chinese grasslands than that in deep-soil water. (3) The probability of GPP decline in Chinese grasslands caused by drought in shallow soils of 0–20 and 20–50 cm is 32.49% and 27.64%, respectively, which is much higher than the probability of GPP decline in deeper soils. In particular, soil drought was more detrimental to grassland GPP in Xinjiang and the Loess Plateau. (4) The probability of soil drought causing GPP decline was higher than that of atmospheric drought during the historical period (1.78–8.19%), but the probability of an atmospheric drought-induced GPP deficit increases significantly in the future and becomes a key factor inhibiting GPP accumulation in some regions (e.g., the Loess Plateau). Our study highlighted the response of grassland ecosystems after the occurrence of soil drought, especially for the shallow-soil-water indicator, which provides important theoretical references for grassland drought disaster emergency prevention and policy formulation.

Keywords: gross primary productivity; water constraint; Chinese grasslands; soil drought; probabilistic framework (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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