Risk Assessment of Earthquake–Landslide Hazard Chain Based on CF-SVM and Newmark Model—Using Changbai Mountain as an Example

Kai Ke, Yichen Zhang (), Jiquan Zhang, Yanan Chen, Chenyang Wu, Zuoquan Nie and Junnan Wu
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Kai Ke: College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, China
Yichen Zhang: College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, China
Jiquan Zhang: School of Environment, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130117, China
Yanan Chen: College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, China
Chenyang Wu: College of Surveying and Mapping Engineering, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130021, China
Zuoquan Nie: College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, China
Junnan Wu: College of Jilin Emergency Management, Changchun Institute of Technology, Changchun 130012, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 3, 1-20

Abstract: Changbai Mountain is an important part of the development and opening pilot area of Changjitu. It is the birthplace of Songhua River, Yalu River, and Tumen River, and is known as the source of the three rivers. Millions of people live in the basin. A volcanic eruption accompanied by earthquakes would lead to a large number of landslides, debris flows, and show a chain effect, the formation of a secondary geological disaster chain, which is a serious threat to people’s lives and property safety. This paper selected indexes from three aspects: the hazard of earthquake-induced geological disaster chain, the exposure and vulnerability of disaster-bearing bodies, and the risk assessment of earthquake-induced geological disaster chain. The sensitivity values of each influence factor were calculated by the certainty factor (CF) using the support vector machine, and then, the susceptibility assessment was obtained. The cumulative displacement calculated by the Newmark model represented the potential risk intensity. We considered the Changbai Mountain volcanic earthquake–landslide disaster chain as an example. The results of risk assessment showed that the extremely high and high risk areas were mainly located within the 12 km radius of Tianchi Lake, and the other areas in the study area were mainly associated with very low to low risk values. The verification results showed that the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve area was 0.8373, indicating that the method was very effective in the identification and assessment of seismic hazard chain risk. In these high-risk areas, relevant countermeasures should be formulated to prevent the risk of geological disasters, strengthen the implementation of regional disaster prevention and reduction work, and ensure the safety of residents’ lives and property.

Keywords: Changbai Mountain Nature Reserve; CF-SVM model; Newmark model; risk assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:3:p:696-:d:1099055

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