Quantitative Analysis of Seasonality and the Impact of COVID-19 on Tourists’ Use of Urban Green Space in Okinawa: An ARIMA Modeling Approach Using Web Review Data

Ruochen Yang, Kun Liu, Chang Su, Shiro Takeda, Junhua Zhang and Shuhao Liu ()
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Ruochen Yang: Graduate School of Horticulture, Chiba University, Chiba 271-8510, Japan
Kun Liu: Graduate School of Horticulture, Chiba University, Chiba 271-8510, Japan
Chang Su: School of Architecture and Urban Planning, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074, China
Shiro Takeda: Graduate School of Horticulture, Chiba University, Chiba 271-8510, Japan
Junhua Zhang: Graduate School of Horticulture, Chiba University, Chiba 271-8510, Japan
Shuhao Liu: Graduate School of Horticulture, Chiba University, Chiba 271-8510, Japan

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 5, 1-25

Abstract: We employed publicly available user-generated content (UGC) data from the website Tripadvisor and developed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model using the R language to analyze the seasonality of the use of urban green space (UGS) in Okinawa under normal conditions and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The seasonality of the use of ocean-area UGS is primarily influenced by climatic factors, with the peak season occurring from April to October and the off-peak season from November to March. Conversely, the seasonality of the use of non-ocean-area UGS remains fairly stable throughout the year, with a relatively high number of visitors in January and May. The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic greatly impacted visitor enthusiasm for travel, resulting in significantly fewer actual postings compared with predictions. During the outbreak, use of ocean-area UGS was severely restricted, resulting in even fewer postings and a negative correlation with the number of new cases. In contrast, for non-ocean-area UGS, a positive correlation was observed between the change in postings and the number of new cases. We offer several suggestions to develop UGS management in Okinawa, considering the opportunity for a period of recovery for the tourism industry.

Keywords: tourism; urban green space; COVID-19; Okinawa; ARIMA (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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