Simulating Urban Agglomeration Expansion in Henan Province, China: An Analysis of Driving Mechanisms Using the FLUS Model with Considerations for Urban Interactions and Ecological Constraints

Chaoran Gao, Jinxin Wang (), Manman Wang and Yan Zhang
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Chaoran Gao: School of Geoscience & Technology, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Jinxin Wang: School of Geoscience & Technology, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Manman Wang: School of Geoscience & Technology, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China
Yan Zhang: School of Geoscience & Technology, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 6, 1-23

Abstract: Urban expansion is influenced by complex and variable social, economic, natural, and policy-related factors. Given their nonlinear interactions, accurately modeling these urban expansion processes poses a challenge. While most studies treat the city as an independent entity, prioritizing internal urban factors, urban land expansion is influenced by intercity interactions and the ecological environment. This study proposes a new approach that couples the gravitational field model, ecological constraints, and the Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model, comprehensively considering the impact of intercity interaction and the ecological environment. The experiment in Henan Province in China assessed the effects of factors such as basic spatial variables (Slope and distance to the city center), urban gravitational field, and ecological constraints on urban expansion through the optimal parameters-based geographical detector (OPGD) model. The feasibility of the method was confirmed by this case study, which shows that it improves the simulation accuracy of the urban agglomeration scale, particularly for central cities. We identified the urban gravitational field and ecological constraints as two important factors affecting the expansion of urban agglomerations. Areas with stronger urban spatial fields are more likely to attract neighboring resources and promote urban expansion, whereas ecological factors constrain the expansion behavior of cities under the condition of ecological and environmental resource protection needs, and both of them work together to influence the expansion behavior of urban clusters. Therefore, we posit that intercity interactions and ecological constraints are important considerations for the future spatial planning of urban agglomerations and for coordinating the harmonious development of urbanization and ecological conservation.

Keywords: urban agglomeration; gravitational field model; ecological constraints; FLUS model; land use simulation; urban expansion; optimal parameters-based geographical detectors (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:6:p:1189-:d:1165123

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