Simulation of Grassland SOC under Future-Climate Scenarios in Gansu, China

Meiling Zhang (), Xiaojuan Li and Xiaoni Liu ()
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Meiling Zhang: Center for Quantitative Biology, College of Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Xiaojuan Li: Center for Quantitative Biology, College of Science, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China
Xiaoni Liu: College of Prataculture, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 6, 1-12

Abstract: The impacts of global warming on the grassland carbon cycle are increasingly severe. To explore the spatiotemporal variation in grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) and its response to climate change in Gansu Province, in this study, we designed five future-climate-scenario simulations (2019–2048), based on the baseline (1989–2018), according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. The CENTURY biogeochemistry model was used to estimate the SOC of Gansu Province. One-way ANOVA and an error analysis were used to verify the model. Meanwhile, a Pearson coefficient diagram was used to analyze the main influencing factors of SOC. The results revealed that there was a good agreement between the observed and predicted SOC. The quarterly and inter-annual SOC trends of the five future-climate-scenario simulations were similar to those of the baseline simulation. The most extensive SOC storage occurred in the central Gannan region, in the simulation B scenario (temperature increase of 2 °C, no change in precipitation, and double the CO 2 concentration). Temperature had a significant negative effect on SOC. Precipitation had a weak impact on SOC. The results indicate that SOC was more sensitive to temperature than to precipitation.

Keywords: soil organic carbon; spatiotemporal distribution; future-climate scenarios; one-way ANOVA analysis; CENTURY model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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