Quota and Space Allocations of New Urban Land Supported by Urban Growth Simulations: A Case Study of Guangzhou City, China

Xiang Li, Jiang Zhu (), Tao Liu, Xiangdong Yin, Jiangchun Yao, Hao Jiang, Bing Bu, Jianlong Yan, Yixuan Li and Zhangcheng Chen
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Xiang Li: Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
Jiang Zhu: Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
Tao Liu: Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
Xiangdong Yin: Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
Jiangchun Yao: Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
Hao Jiang: Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
Bing Bu: Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
Jianlong Yan: Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
Yixuan Li: Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China
Zhangcheng Chen: Guangzhou Urban Planning and Design Survey Research Institute, Guangzhou 510060, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 6, 1-21

Abstract: Previous allocations of new urban land were ineffective because they lacked synergy between quota and space, challenging the government planning authority. This study proposes a new and more reasonable urban land allocation method to guide the smart growth of cities. We used a logistic regression model and multisource data to explore the laws of urban growth and employed a cellular automata (CA) model to simulate this under inertial and constrained scenarios. In addition, the disparities between both scenarios concerning allocation were analyzed. We realized the synergy of quota and space allocations of new urban land through urban growth simulation. Further, the allocation of new urban land was more consistent with the development strategy of Guangzhou under a constrained scenario. The allocation of space was more regular and concentrated under a constrained scenario, which aligns with the requirements of the Government Land Space Planning. Additionally, in the constrained scenario, the bottom lines of cultivated land protection, ecological service, and geological safety were better controlled. This study compensated for the shortcomings of the disjoined quota and space allocations of new urban land and proved that a constrained scenario can more effectively promote reasonable urban growth.

Keywords: urban land allocation; smart urban growth; multi-scenario simulation; bottom line control; Guangzhou City (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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