Simulation Analysis of Land-Use Spatial Conflict in a Geopark Based on the GMOP–Markov–PLUS Model: A Case Study of Yimengshan Geopark, China

Junxiong Mo, Piling Sun (), Dandan Shen, Nan Li, Jinye Zhang and Kun Wang
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Junxiong Mo: School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, China
Piling Sun: School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, China
Dandan Shen: School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, China
Nan Li: School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, China
Jinye Zhang: School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, China
Kun Wang: School of Geography and Tourism, Qufu Normal University, Rizhao 276826, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-24

Abstract: The foundation for accurately understanding regional land-use structures and pursuing the coordination of human–land relations is the scientific identification and simulation of temporal and spatial evolution patterns of land-use spatial conflict (LUSC). Based on the production–living–ecological space (PLES) perspective, a land-use spatial conflict identification and intensity diagnosis model (LUCSII) was constructed using a landscape ecology index. The methods of geographic information system (GIS), spatial autocorrelation analysis, and mathematical statistics were used to achieve the spatial pattern of LUSC over the last 20 years, and the GMOP–Markov–PLUS model was used to simulate the evolution of LUSC in the future under various scenarios. The results indicated that our established LUCSII could accurately identify potential land-use spatial conflict areas in geoparks. The GMOP–Markov–PLUS model constructed had also scientifically predicted the future land-use patterns under different scenarios, successfully demonstrating the changing process of spatial conflict pattern evolution. The research proposed three different plans for the long-term land use of YG, including ecological protection, economic development, and long-term development perspectives. Finally, the research further emphasized the importance for sustainable development of geoparks. More attention should be paid to the optimal allocation of land-use structure and the coordinated development of human–land relationships.

Keywords: land-use spatial conflict; production–living–ecological space; multi-scenario simulation; grey multi-objective optimization; Yimengshan Geopark (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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