Scenario Paths of Developing Forest Carbon Sinks for China to Achieve Carbon Neutrality

Guangyue Xu, Peter Schwarz, Xiaojing Shi () and Nathan Duma
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Guangyue Xu: Institute of Ecological Civilization Economy, School of Economics, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
Peter Schwarz: Belk College of Business and Associate, Energy Production and Infrastructure Center (EPIC), University of North Carolina at Charlotte, Charlotte, NC 28223, USA
Xiaojing Shi: School of College English Teaching and Research, Henan University, Kaifeng 475004, China
Nathan Duma: The Sphere Institute, Los Angeles, CA 90017, USA

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-19

Abstract: To explore the role of forest carbon sinks in achieving carbon neutrality, the cointegration regression method and scenario analysis are utilized to forecast the long-term development trend of China’s forest carbon sinks up to the year 2100 and their impact on carbon neutrality. The results show that: (1) Under routine, accelerated, and strengthened ecological civilization scenarios (or RECS, AECS, and SECS, respectively), China’s forests are projected to absorb 531–645 million tons of carbon by 2050 and 2.32–4.69 billion tons of carbon by 2100, respectively, and the value of the strengthened scenario will be markedly higher than that of the routine scenario. (2) Driven by slower growth in forestry investment, China’s forest carbon sinks growth in all three scenarios peak by 2050 and then slow in a U-trend, with the growth rate in the SECS 0.45 percentage points higher than that of AECS, and the growth rate in the AECS 0.44 percentage points higher than that of RECS. (3) Under SECS, forest carbon sinks can help China achieve its carbon neutrality goal in 2054 (before the target date of 2060) with cumulative forestry investment of 53.3 trillion yuan and an annual investment growth rate of about 6.3%. Therefore, this study provides a deeper understanding than previous works of the important role of forest carbon sinks in achieving carbon neutrality.

Keywords: carbon neutrality; forest; carbon sinks; scenario analysis; China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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