Spatiotemporal Evolution of Urban Shrinkage and Its Impact on Urban Resilience in Three Provinces of Northeast China

Shangkun Yu, Ruili Wang, Xuejie Zhang, Yi Miao () and Chengxin Wang ()
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Shangkun Yu: College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China
Ruili Wang: College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China
Xuejie Zhang: College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China
Yi Miao: College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China
Chengxin Wang: College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan 250358, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-22

Abstract: Currently, Chinese cities are experiencing both overall growth and localized shrinkage. Therefore, it becomes crucial to quantify urban shrinkage and explore the transformation and sustainable development of shrinking cities from the perspective of urban resilience. This study focuses on the three provinces of Northeast China, which are representative areas of urban shrinkage, as its research subjects. Employing the analytic hierarchy process, a comprehensive evaluation system for urban shrinkage is constructed based on three dimensions: population, economy, and space. Furthermore, urban resilience is scientifically measured from four aspects: economy, society, ecology, and infrastructure. The study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban shrinkage and urban resilience in the three northeastern provinces from 2012 to 2018. It also examines the impact of urban shrinkage on urban resilience through regression analysis and mediation models. The results indicate the following: (1) Half of the cities in the three northeastern provinces experienced shrinkage, although the extent of shrinkage decreased with the implementation of the Northeast China revitalization strategy. Population-related shrinkage was the most extensive and continued to expand, while economy-related shrinkage was the most severe, and space-related shrinkage was the least severe. (2) The resilience of shrinking cities was lower than the average level. Population-shrinking cities and economy-shrinking cities exhibited low levels of economic resilience, and the gap between them continued to widen. Space-shrinking cities generally had low infrastructure resilience. (3) The urban shrinkage index had a significant positive impact on the urban resilience index, mediated through intermediary variables, such as innovation capability and cultural development. Notably, both the direct and indirect effects of innovation capability were the greatest. Population-related shrinkage had the largest impact on urban resilience, while more intermediary variables of economy-related shrinkage passed the significance test.

Keywords: urban shrinkage; urban resilience; mediating effect; smart shrinkage; three provinces of Northeast China (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:7:p:1412-:d:1193760

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