Where Will Threatened Aegle marmelos L., a Tree of the Semi-Arid Region, Go under Climate Change? Implications for the Reintroduction of the Species

Muhammad Waheed, Shiekh Marifatul Haq (), Fahim Arshad, Muhammad Azhar Jameel, Manzer H. Siddiqui (), Rainer W. Bussmann, Nabeel Manshoor and Saud Alamri
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Muhammad Waheed: Department of Botany, University of Okara, Okara 56300, Pakistan
Shiekh Marifatul Haq: Department of Ethnobotany, Institute of Botany, Ilia State University, 0162 Tbilisi, Georgia
Fahim Arshad: Department of Botany, University of Okara, Okara 56300, Pakistan
Muhammad Azhar Jameel: Department of Zoology, Wildlife, & Fisheries, PMAS-Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi 45600, Pakistan
Manzer H. Siddiqui: Department of Botany and Microbiology, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia
Rainer W. Bussmann: Department of Ethnobotany, Institute of Botany, Ilia State University, 0162 Tbilisi, Georgia
Nabeel Manshoor: Institute of molecular biology and biotechnology (IMBB), The University of Lahore, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
Saud Alamri: Department of Botany and Microbiology, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi Arabia

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 7, 1-19

Abstract: The conservation of threatened species and the restoration of ecosystems have emerged as crucial ecological prerequisites in the context of a changing global environment. One such species of significant commercial value is the Bael tree, scientifically known as Aegle marmelos , which is native to semi-arid regions in Pakistan. However, the species faces threats in Pakistan due to overexploitation and changing land use. To support sustainable production practices and agricultural planning, it is important to investigate how climate change has affected the geographic distribution of Aegle marmelos . Additionally, the impact of climate change on its frequency and distribution remains uncertain. To address these concerns, we employed species distribution modeling techniques using MaxEnt and GIS to predict the present and future distribution of favorable habitats for Aegle marmelos . Based on our findings, several key bioclimatic variables were identified as significant influencers of Aegle marmelos distribution. These variables include soil bulk density (bdod), isothermality (bio03), precipitation during the warmest quarter (bio18), and mean temperature during the wettest quarter (bio08). Currently, the potential suitable habitat for Aegle marmelos spans an area of approximately 396,869 square kilometers, primarily concentrated in the regions of Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan in Pakistan. The habitats deemed highly suitable for Aegle marmelos are predominantly found in upper and central Punjab. However, if climate change persists, the suitable habitats in Pakistan are likely to become more fragmented, resulting in a significant shift in the overall suitable area. Moreover, the distribution center of the species is expected to relocate towards the southeast, leading to increased spatial separation over time. The results of this research significantly contribute to our understanding of the geo-ecological aspects related to Aegle marmelos . Furthermore, they provide valuable recommendations for the protection, management, monitoring, and sustainable production of this species.

Keywords: climate change; ecological modeling; suitable habitats; threatened tree; bael fruit (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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