Simulation and Zoning Research on the Ecosystem Service in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region Based on SSP–RCP Scenarios

Jinxiao Li, Guijun Zhang, Pengtao Zhang (), Siyu Jing and Jie Dong
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Jinxiao Li: College of Land and Resources, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, China
Guijun Zhang: College of Land and Resources, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, China
Pengtao Zhang: College of Land and Resources, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, China
Siyu Jing: College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, China
Jie Dong: College of Land and Resources, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 8, 1-19

Abstract: Understanding future trends and identifying characteristic differences in regional ecosystem services (ESs), in addition to ecological zoning, is vital for promoting the adjustment of ecological policy and the construction of sustainable ecosystems. Based on shared socioeconomic pathways and representative concentration pathways (SSP–RCP), the spatial distribution pattern of land use in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (BTH) in 2030 was simulated by using a patch-generating land use simulation model (PLUS) in this study. Water yield, carbon storage, habitat quality, and food product were simulated through the comprehensive evaluation model combining ecosystem services and trade-offs (InVEST). The comprehensive supply capacity of ESs was assessed. The ecological risk level was calculated by comparing the changes in the integrated supply capacity of ESs in 2020 and under each SSP–RCP scenario in 2030, and ecological zoning was established using a two-dimensional discriminant matrix. The results are as follows: (1) The degradation of grassland and cropland accompanied by an increase in construction land and forest to varying degrees will be the common characteristics of the three SSP–RCP scenarios in BTH. (2) Water yield and carbon storage services will exhibit an upward tendency only under SSP1-2.6, while habitat quality and food product services will exhibit a downward trend under three SSP–RCP scenarios. Obvious geographical heterogeneity exists in the comprehensive supply capacity of ESs. (3) Zones with low ecological risks will mainly be distributed in some counties of Zhangjiakou city, while zones with high ecological risks will account for a large proportion of the whole. There will be great ecological risks in the BTH overall. (4) The BTH was split into four types of ecological zones based on supply and risk. These zones comprise the ecological enhancement zone, ecological restoration zone, ecological sensitive zone, and ecological conservation zone. Corresponding control measures were also proposed. The findings of this study can be used to inform the formulation and improvement of environmental conservation policies.

Keywords: SSP–RCP scenarios; ecosystem service simulation; ecological zoning; land use changes Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:12:y:2023:i:8:p:1536-:d:1209309

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