Spatial and Temporal Variability Characteristics of Future Carbon Stocks in Anhui Province under Different SSP Scenarios Based on PLUS and InVEST Models

Shuaijun Yue, Guangxing Ji (), Weiqiang Chen, Junchang Huang, Yulong Guo and Mingyue Cheng
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Shuaijun Yue: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Guangxing Ji: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Weiqiang Chen: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Junchang Huang: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Yulong Guo: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
Mingyue Cheng: College of Resources and Environment, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 9, 1-17

Abstract: With the rapid development of the social economy, human activities have had a severe impact on the environment. The global climate issue caused by CO 2 emissions has attracted the attention of various countries around the world, and reducing CO 2 emissions is urgent. This article simulates the changes in carbon storage in Anhui Province from 2030 to 2070 based on SSP1-2.5, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-5.8 scenarios. First, based on the land use data of Anhui Province in 2010, the PLUS model was used to simulate the land use data of 2015, and the accuracy of the simulation results was verified against real data. Then, the land use data of Anhui Province were simulated in the future period from 2030 to 2070 under different SSP scenarios. Finally, based on the InVEST model, the spatiotemporal changes in future carbon storage were calculated. The research showed that, during the period of 2030 to 2070, the spatial distribution of carbon storage in Anhui Province under three scenario simulations generally showed a distribution pattern of high carbon storage in the north and south, and low carbon storage in the central region. Under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, Anhui Province’s carbon storage decreased by 0.33 million tons, a decrease of 0.029%. Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, carbon storage increased by 0.25 million tons, an increase of 0.021%. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, carbon storage decreased by 1.54 million tons, a decrease of 0.133%. The reasons for the changes in carbon storage were related to the areas of arable land, forest land, and grassland. This study can provide a reference for future low-carbon land use planning.

Keywords: carbon; PLUS model; InVEST model; SSP scenario; land (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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