Spatio-Temporal Variation Characteristics of North Africa’s Climate Potential Productivity

Mo Bi, Lei Wan, Zhenke Zhang (), Xingqi Zhang () and Chengzhi Yu
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Mo Bi: Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, Nanjing 210093, China
Lei Wan: School of Geographic & Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
Zhenke Zhang: Collaborative Innovation Center of South China Sea Studies, Nanjing 210093, China
Xingqi Zhang: School of Geographic & Oceanographic Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
Chengzhi Yu: Department of Architecture and Built Environment, University of Nottingham, Ningbo 315100, China

Land, 2023, vol. 12, issue 9, 1-17

Abstract: Africa is becoming one of the most sensitive and vulnerable regions of the global ecosystem due to its variable climate, complex topography, and diversity of natural ecosystems. In the context of global warming, climate change not only alters the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in North Africa, but also affects the spatial distribution of vegetation as well as the structure and function of ecosystems, causing changes in the North African ecosystem and inducing a series of food security problems. In this regard, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution of climate change, climate production potential (CPP), and influencing factors in Africa based on meteorological data for 1901–2019, using the Thornthwaite Memorial model, Mann–Kendall mutation test, and Pearson correlation model. The results indicated that from 1901 to 2019, the CPP in North Africa decreased by 4.9%, while the region’s precipitation experienced a decline of 5.2%. The phased trend in CPP was consistent with the change in precipitation. Temperature and precipitation were the main limiting factors for CPP in North Africa, with precipitation being more limiting. In general, North Africa’s CPP was more sensitive to precipitation, and a continued ‘warm and dry’ climate in the future could lead to an increasing downward trend.

Keywords: climate change; climate potential productivity (CPP); Thornthwaite Memorial model; climate propensity rate; Mann–Kendall test; correlation analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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