Effects of Land Cover Changes on Shallow Landslide Susceptibility Using SlideforMAP Software (Mt. Nerone, Italy)

Ilenia Murgia, Alessandro Vitali (), Filippo Giadrossich, Enrico Tonelli, Lorena Baglioni, Denis Cohen, Massimiliano Schwarz and Carlo Urbinati
Additional contact information
Ilenia Murgia: Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry, University of Florence, Via San Bonaventura 13, 50145 Firenze, Italy
Alessandro Vitali: Department of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University, Via Brecce Bianche 10, 60131 Ancona, Italy
Filippo Giadrossich: Nuoro Forestry School, Department of Agricolture, University of Sassari, Viale Italia 39, 07100 Sassari, Italy
Enrico Tonelli: Department of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University, Via Brecce Bianche 10, 60131 Ancona, Italy
Lorena Baglioni: Department of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University, Via Brecce Bianche 10, 60131 Ancona, Italy
Denis Cohen: CoSci LLC, Shorewood, WI 53211, USA
Massimiliano Schwarz: School of Agricultural, Forest and Food Sciences, Bern University of Applied Sciences, Länggasse 85, 3052 Zollikofen, Switzerland
Carlo Urbinati: Department of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences, Marche Polytechnic University, Via Brecce Bianche 10, 60131 Ancona, Italy

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 10, 1-15

Abstract: Land cover changes in mountainous areas due to silvo-pastoral abandonment can affect soil stability, especially on steep slopes. In addition, the increase in rainfall intensity in recent decades requires re-assessing landslide susceptibility and vegetation management for soil protection. This study was carried out using the software SlideforMAP in the Mt. Nerone massif (central Italy) to assess (i) the effects of land cover changes on slope stability over the past 70 years (1954–2021) and (ii) the role of actual vegetation cover during intense rainfall events. The study area has undergone a significant change in vegetation cover over the years, with a reduction in mainly pastures (−80%) and croplands (−22%) land cover classes in favor of broadleaf forests (+64%). We simulated twelve scenarios, combining land cover conditions and rainfall intensities, and analyzed the landslide failure probability results. Vegetation cover significantly increased the slope stability, up to three to four times compared to the unvegetated areas (29%, 68%, and 89%, respectively, in the no cover, 1954, and 2021 scenarios). The current land cover provided protection against landslide susceptibility, even during extreme rainfall events, for different return periods. The 30-year return period was a critical condition for a significant stability reduction. In addition, forest species provide different mitigation effects due to their root system features. The results showed that species with deep root systems, such as oaks, provide more effective slope stability than other species, such as pines. This study helps to quantify the mitigation effects of vegetation cover and suggests that physically based probabilistic models can be used at the regional scale to detect the areas prone to failure and the triggering of rainfall-induced shallow landslides. This approach can be important in land planning and management to mitigate risks in mountainous regions.

Keywords: Apennines; critical rainfall; root reinforcement; protection forest; ecosystem services (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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