Modelling Climate Change Impacts on Location Suitability for Cultivating Avocado and Blueberry in New Zealand

Indrakumar Vetharaniam (), C. Jill Stanley, Michael Cummins, Carlo van den Dijssel and Karin Müller
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Indrakumar Vetharaniam: The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Hamilton 3214, New Zealand
C. Jill Stanley: The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Alexandra 9391, New Zealand
Michael Cummins: The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Hamilton 3214, New Zealand
Carlo van den Dijssel: The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Palmerston North 4410, New Zealand
Karin Müller: The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Ltd., Auckland 1025, New Zealand

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 11, 1-35

Abstract: Regional suitability for growing avocados and blueberries may alter with climate change. Modelling can provide insights into potential climate change impacts, thereby informing industry and government policy decisions to ameliorate future risks and capitalise on future opportunities. We developed continuous/sliding-scale models that used soil, terrain and weather data to assess location suitability for cultivating avocado and blueberry, based on physiological and phenological considerations specific to each crop. Using geographical information system (GIS) data on soil, slope and weather, we mapped cultivation suitability for avocado and blueberry across New Zealand, and, for accuracy, “ground-truthed” these maps in an iterative process of expert validation and model recalibration. We modelled the incremental changes in location suitability that could occur through climate change using “future” GIS-based weather data from climate model simulations for different greenhouse gas (GHG) pathways that ranged from stringent GHG mitigation to unabated GHG emissions. Changes in maps over time showed where suitability would increase or decrease and to what extent. These results indicate where avocado and blueberry might replace other crops that become less suitable over time, and where avocado might displace blueberry. The approach and models can be applied to other countries or extended to other crops with similar growing requirements.

Keywords: suitability modelling; climate change; regional crop suitability; continuous scale modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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