Are Medium-Sized Cities in China Shrinking from 2010 to 2020? An Empirical Analysis with a Multi-Dimensional Model

Lei Gao, Chao Ye () and Liang Zhuang
Additional contact information
Lei Gao: School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Chao Ye: School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China
Liang Zhuang: School of Social Development, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 11, 1-19

Abstract: Urban shrinkage has emerged as a worldwide concern, which is increasingly prevalent in developing countries like China, particularly in medium-sized cities (MSCs). Compared to large cities and counties, MSCs find themselves in a national policy blind spot and have been neglected both in policy and research. Previous studies, based on population changes, have shown that urban shrinkage in China is not severe. However, urban shrinkage is not just about population decline, and it has not been adequately discussed from a multi-dimensional perspective. This paper adopts a multi-dimensional model, considering population, economy, and space dimensions to analyze shrinkage patterns in 164 MSCs in China from 2010 to 2020. Findings reveal that 6.1% of MSCs experienced population shrinkage, and 24.4% faced shrinkage in economic or spatial dimensions. Shrinking MSCs are spatially distributed in the Northeast as well as in the areas surrounding large cities. Industrial restructuring, job losses, and healthcare disparities contribute to urban shrinkage, and the impact of aging will be further felt. As large cities consistently attract population and resources and digitization has dramatically affected population mobility, more MSCs will shrink in the future. This paper contributes to the understanding of shrinkage of MSCs among scholars and policymakers, urging a shift towards more balanced and digital urban governance.

Keywords: mid-sized cities; shrinking cities; population decline; urbanization; governance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/11/1865/pdf (application/pdf)
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/13/11/1865/ (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:gam:jlands:v:13:y:2024:i:11:p:1865-:d:1516629

Access Statistics for this article

Land is currently edited by Ms. Carol Ma

More articles in Land from MDPI
Bibliographic data for series maintained by MDPI Indexing Manager ().