Evolution and Predictive Analysis of Spatiotemporal Patterns of Habitat Quality in the Turpan–Hami Basin

Yaqian Li, Yongqiang Liu (), Yan Qin, Kun Zhang, Reifat Enwer, Weiping Wang and Shuai Yuan
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Yaqian Li: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Yongqiang Liu: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Yan Qin: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Kun Zhang: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Reifat Enwer: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Weiping Wang: College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830017, China
Shuai Yuan: School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Hubei LuoJia Laboratory, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 12, 1-20

Abstract: The expansion of urban areas and unsustainable land use associated with human activities have brought about a decline in habitat quality (HQ), especially in arid regions with fragile ecosystems. A precise prediction of land use and habitat quality changes across different scenarios is crucial for the sustainable maintenance of ecological diversity. In this article, the InVEST model was employed to assess both the quality and degradation levels of habitats in the Turpan–Hami Basin (THB) spanning 1990~2020. Additionally, the InVEST-PLUS coupling model was employed to forecast habitat conditions under three different scenarios in 2050. Specifically, it involved the comparison of land use changes and spatial distribution of HQ across natural development (ND) scenarios, town development (UD) scenarios, and ecological protection (EP) scenarios, along with the analysis of hot spots of HQ spanning 1990~2050. The outcomes revealed the following: (1) The primary land use in the THB was categorized as unused land, alongside notable expansions in cultivated land, grassland, and built-up land. Conversely, there was a considerable decline observed in forests, water bodies, and unused land spanning 1990~2020. (2) The HQ within the THB exhibited evident spatial clustering characteristics. Between 1990 and 2020, areas with low HQ accounted for over 85%, areas with unchanged HQ constituted 88.19%, areas experiencing deteriorated HQ comprised approximately 5.02%, and areas displaying improved HQ encompassed around 6.79%. (3) Through the comparison of HQ for the ND, UD, and EP scenarios in 2050, it was observed that the average HQ under the EP scenario ranked highest, exhibiting the lowest degree of degradation on average. This indicates that the EP scenario is most advantageous for preserving HQ. Conclusively, this research provides valuable viewpoints for making decisions aimed at enhancing HQ in ecologically fragile arid regions.

Keywords: habitat quality; PLUS model; InVEST model; Turpan–Hami Basin (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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