Assessing the Vulnerability of Medicinal and Aromatic Plants to Climate and Land-Use Changes in a Mediterranean Biodiversity Hotspot

Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis, Maria Tsakiri, Ioannis P. Kokkoris, Panayiotis Trigas, Gregoris Iatrou, Fotini N. Lamari, Dimitris Tzanoudakis, Eleni Koumoutsou, Panayotis Dimopoulos, Arne Strid and Maria Panitsa ()
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Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis: Laboratory of Botany, Department of Biology, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece
Maria Tsakiri: Laboratory of Botany, Department of Biology, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece
Ioannis P. Kokkoris: Laboratory of Botany, Department of Biology, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece
Panayiotis Trigas: Laboratory of Systematic Botany, Department of Crop Science, Agricultural University of Athens, 11855 Athens, Greece
Gregoris Iatrou: Laboratory of Botany, Department of Biology, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece
Fotini N. Lamari: Laboratory of Pharmacognosy & Chemistry of Natural Products, Department of Pharmacy, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece
Dimitris Tzanoudakis: Laboratory of Botany, Department of Biology, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece
Eleni Koumoutsou: Laboratory of Botany, Department of Biology, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece
Panayotis Dimopoulos: Laboratory of Botany, Department of Biology, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece
Arne Strid: Independent Researcher, Bakkevej 6, DK-5853 Ørbæk, Denmark
Maria Panitsa: Laboratory of Botany, Department of Biology, University of Patras, 26504 Patras, Greece

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-29

Abstract: Medicinal and Aromatic Plants (MAPs) play a critical role in providing ecosystem services through their provision of herbal remedies, food and natural skin care products, their integration into local economies, and maintaining pollinators’ diversity and populations and ecosystem functioning. Mountainous regions, such as Chelmos-Vouraikos National Park (CVNP), represent unique reservoirs of endemic MAP diversity that require conservation prioritisation. This study aims to provide insights into the sustainable management of MAPs, contributing to efforts to protect Mediterranean biodiversity amid the dual challenges of climate and land-use change, using a suite of macroecological modelling techniques. Following a Species Distribution Modelling framework, we investigated the vulnerability of endemic and non-endemic MAPs to climate and land-use changes. We examined the potential shifts in MAP diversity, distribution, and conservation hotspots within the CVNP. Our results revealed species-specific responses, with endemic taxa facing severe range contractions and non-endemic taxa initially expanding but eventually declining, particularly under land-use change scenarios. Local biodiversity hotspots are projected to shift altitudinally, with considerable area losses in the coming decades and elevated species turnover predicted throughout the CVNP, leading to biotic homogenization. Climate and land-use changes jointly threaten MAP diversity, calling for adaptive conservation strategies, thus highlighting the importance of proactive measures, such as awareness raising, establishing plant micro-reserves, assisted translocation, and promoting sustainable harvesting to protect these species within the CVNP. Our study offers vital insights for managing biodiversity hotspots amid global change pressures, stressing the need to integrate ecological and socioeconomic factors.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation; conservation prioritization; ecosystem services; extinction risk; Greece; Species Distribution Modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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