Land Management Drifted: Land Use Scenario Modeling of Trancura River Basin, Araucanía, Chile

Alejandro Díaz-Jara (), Daniela Manuschevich, Aarón Grau and Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini
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Alejandro Díaz-Jara: Programa de Magíster en Geografía, Universidad de Chile, Santiago 8331051, Chile
Daniela Manuschevich: Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago 8370449, Chile
Aarón Grau: Programa de Magíster en Gestión Territorial de Recursos Naturales, Universidad de Chile, Santiago 8820808, Chile
Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini: Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago 8370449, Chile

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-35

Abstract: Modeling land use scenarios is critical to understand the socio-environmental impacts of current decisions and to explore future configurations for management. The management of regulations and permits by central and local governments plays an important role in shaping land use, with different complexities arising from site-specific socioeconomic dynamics. In Chile, the complexity is even more evident due to insufficient binding land regulations, fragmented government procedures, and the primacy of cities over rural areas. Yet land use must be managed to support sustainable development. This research integrates several state management dynamics into scenario modeling to support decision making at the basin scale through 2050. We employed a mixed qualitative-quantitative approach using interviews with state officials and local stakeholders as the basis for the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CLUE) model, which resulted in three scenarios with spatially explicit maps. Key findings indicate that opportunities for developing normative planning tools are limited, leaving state management without clear direction. However, current management practices can address problematic activities such as second-home projects and industrial monocultures while promoting small-scale agriculture. Scenario modeling is useful for understanding how the specifics that arise from the scalar dynamics of state management affect land use change and how existing management resources can be leveraged to achieve positive outcomes for both the ecosystem and society.

Keywords: scenario; land use modeling; LULCC; land use management; rescaling; land use policy; Curarrehue; Araucanía; Chile (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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