‘Kesho’ Scenario Development for Supporting Water-Energy Food Security under Future Conditions in Zanzibar

Rebecca J. S. Newman (), Charis Enns, Claudia Capitani, Jessica P. R. Thorn, Colin J. Courtney-Mustaphi, Sam J. Buckton, Eugyen Suzanne Om, Ioan Fazey, Tahir A. Haji, Aziza Y. Nchimbi, Rebecca W. Kariuki and Robert A. Marchant
Additional contact information
Rebecca J. S. Newman: Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK
Charis Enns: Global Development Institute, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK
Claudia Capitani: Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK
Jessica P. R. Thorn: School of Geography and Sustainable Development, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9AJ, UK
Colin J. Courtney-Mustaphi: Department of Environment Science, University of Basel, 4001 Basel, Switzerland
Sam J. Buckton: Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK
Eugyen Suzanne Om: Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK
Ioan Fazey: Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK
Tahir A. Haji: Department of Forestry and Renewable and Non-Renewable Resources, Mjini Magharibi Region, Zanzibar V646+9P9, Tanzania
Aziza Y. Nchimbi: Department of Forestry and Renewable and Non-Renewable Resources, Mjini Magharibi Region, Zanzibar V646+9P9, Tanzania
Rebecca W. Kariuki: School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85281, USA
Robert A. Marchant: Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York YO10 5DD, UK

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 2, 1-26

Abstract: Social-ecological interactions mediate water–energy–food security in small developing islands, but community-scale insights are underrepresented in nexus research. These interactions are dynamic in their response to environmental and anthropogenic pressures and need to be understood to inform sustainable land use planning into the future. This study centered on bringing together diverse stakeholders to explore water–energy–food futures using the “ Kesho ” (meaning “tomorrow” in Kiswahili) scenario tool for two of the largest islands that comprise the Zanzibar Archipelago. The methodology comprised four core stages: (1) exploration of how past drivers of change impacted water–energy–food security; (2) modeling of a Business as Usual Scenario for land cover change; (3) narrative development to describe alternative futures for 2030 based on themes developed at the community scale; and (4) predictions about how narratives would shape land cover and its implications for the nexus. These results were used to model alternate land cover scenarios in TerrSet IDRISI (v. 18.31) and produce visual representations of expected change. Findings demonstrated that deforestation, saltwater incursion, and a reduction in permanent waterbodies were projected by 2030 in a Business as Usual Scenario . Three alternative scenario narratives were developed, these included Adaptation, Ecosystem Management , and Settlement Planning . The results demonstrate that the effectiveness of actions under the scenario options differ between the islands, indicating the importance of understanding the suitability of national policies across considered scales. Synergies across the alternative scenario narratives also emerged, including integrated approaches for managing environmental change, community participation in decision making, effective protection of forests, cultural sensitivity to settlement planning, and poverty alleviation. These synergies could be used to plan strategic action towards effectively strengthening water–energy–food security in Zanzibar.

Keywords: livelihoods; nexus; climate change; development; ecosystems; western Indian ocean (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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