Can a Crop Rotation and Fallow System Reduce the Carbon Emission Intensity of Agriculture?

Xuefeng Zhang, Hui Sun (), Xuechao Xia, Zedong Yang and Shusen Zhu
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Xuefeng Zhang: Xinjiang Innovation Management Research Center, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Hui Sun: Xinjiang Innovation Management Research Center, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Xuechao Xia: Xinjiang Innovation Management Research Center, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Zedong Yang: Xinjiang Innovation Management Research Center, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China
Shusen Zhu: Xinjiang Innovation Management Research Center, Xinjiang University, Urumqi 830046, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 3, 1-23

Abstract: Under the carbon emission pattern of “peak carbon and carbon neutrality”, the policy of crop rotation and fallow system (CRFS) is regarded as an important initiative to promote the green, low-carbon, and high-quality development of agriculture. Focusing on balanced panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021, this paper empirically examines the impact of CRFS on agricultural carbon emissions (ACEI) and its internal mechanism using a multi-temporal difference-in-differences model. The benchmark regression results show that CRFS can significantly reduce ACEI, and the results remain robust after validation by multiple methods. Mechanism results show that CRFS is able to reduce ACEI by reducing factor mismatch and promoting the level of agricultural services. Heterogeneity analysis results show that the arable land fallow rotation system is more conducive to promoting the reduction in agricultural carbon emission intensity in the main grain producing areas, main grain marketing areas, high land transfer areas, and plantation areas than in the grain production and marketing balanced areas, low land transfer, and animal husbandry areas. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of the CRFS policy implementation, provides a doctrinal basis for expanding the scope of CRFS implementation, and provides policy recommendations for relevant departments to improve the CRFS policy.

Keywords: policy assessment; multi-phase did model; resource allocation; convergence analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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