Seasonal Drought Dynamics and the Time-Lag Effect in the MU Us Sandy Land (China) Under the Lens of Climate Change

Fuqiang Wang, Ruiping Li (), Sinan Wang, Huan Wang, Yanru Shi, Yin Zhang, Jianwei Zhao and Jinming Yang
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Fuqiang Wang: College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China
Ruiping Li: College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China
Sinan Wang: Yinshanbeilu National Field Research Station of Desert Steppe Eco-Hydrological System, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Huan Wang: College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China
Yanru Shi: Taipusi Banner Meteorological Bureau, Taipusi Banner 027000, China
Yin Zhang: College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China
Jianwei Zhao: College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010018, China
Jinming Yang: State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 3, 1-22

Abstract: Sand prevention and control are the main tasks of desertification control. The MU Us Sandy Land (MUSL), one of China’s four main deserts, frequently experiences droughts and has a very fragile biological environment. Climate change is the main factor leading to drought, and it may result in more serious drought situations in the future. The Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) was established using land surface temperature and normalized difference vegetation index data. In this paper, we investigate spatial and temporal change characteristics, future change trends, and the time-lag effect of TVDI on climate factors at different scales in MUSL from 2001 to 2020 using Sen + Mann–Kendall trend analysis, Hurstexponent, partial correlation analysis, and lag analysis methods. The results show that (1) the overall drought shows a spatial characteristic of gradually alleviating from west to east (TVDI = 0.6). A significant drying trend dominated 38.5% of the pixels in the fall (Z = 1.99), and a highly significant drying trend dominated the rest of the three seasons (Z average = 2.95) and the whole year (Z = 3.47). (2) In the future, dry autumn, winter, and the whole year will be dominated by continuous drying, and spring and summer will mainly change from dry to wet. The main relationships between winter TVDI and temperature (−0.06) and precipitation (−0.07) were negative, while evapotranspiration (0.18) showed a positive correlation. The six land use types in spring, summer, fall, and the whole year were primarily non-significantly positively correlated with temperature and evapotranspiration. (3) At the seasonal scale, the sensitive factors in spring and autumn were opposite, with spring TVDI responding quickly to precipitation (0.3 months) and being less sensitive to temperature (1.8 months) and evapotranspiration (2 months). At the interannual scale, desert land TVDI was most sensitive to precipitation (2.6 months) and least responsive to temperature (3 months).

Keywords: TVDI; climate factors; spatial and temporal characteristics; time-lag effect; seasonal drought; MU Us Sandy Land (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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