Characteristics Analysis and Prediction of Land Use Evolution in the Source Region of the Yangtze River and Yellow River Based on Improved FLUS Model

Haoyue Gao, Tianling Qin (), Qinghua Luan, Jianming Feng, Xiuyan Zhang, Yuhui Yang, Shu Xu and Jie Lu
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Haoyue Gao: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Tianling Qin: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Qinghua Luan: Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Wisdom Water Conservancy, Hebei University of Engineering, Handan 056038, China
Jianming Feng: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Xiuyan Zhang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Yuhui Yang: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Shu Xu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China
Jie Lu: State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research, Beijing 100038, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 3, 1-21

Abstract: Climate change profoundly alters land use in alpine regions, and delving into the evolutionary characteristics of these changes is crucial for the sustainable development of regional land resources and the gradual enhancement of the ecological environment. Taking the source region of the Yangtze and Yellow River (SRYAYE) as a case study, we integrate permafrost and snowfall data into the Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS). Analyzing historical land use, we predict and simulate the land use scenarios for 2030, 2035, and 2060 under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 climates, and conduct a detailed analysis of the scale, composition, and pattern of land use in this area. Scale. The results showed that ① the Kappa coefficient of the improved FLUS model was higher than 0.927, and that the overall accuracy of the simulation was increased by 2.64%; ② the area of forest land and the high-coverage grassland will increase in the future and the center of gravity will migrate to the west, and that the area of moderate and low-coverage grassland will slightly decrease but tend to become green to the west; and ③ the fragmentation degree of the SRYAYE is decreasing, and the influence of human activities on the landscape pattern is weaker than in the past.

Keywords: land use; FLUS model; climate change; the source region of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River; scale pattern (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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