Multi-Scenario Simulating the Impacts of Land Use Changes on Ecosystem Health in Urban Agglomerations on the Northern Slope of the Tianshan Mountain, China

Ziyi Hua, Jing Ma, Yan Sun, Yongjun Yang, Xinhua Zhu and Fu Chen ()
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Ziyi Hua: School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211000, China
Jing Ma: School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211000, China
Yan Sun: School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211000, China
Yongjun Yang: Engineering Research Center of Ministry of Education for Mine Ecological Restoration, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221000, China
Xinhua Zhu: School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211000, China
Fu Chen: School of Public Administration, Hohai University, Nanjing 211000, China

Land, 2024, vol. 13, issue 5, 1-21

Abstract: It is of great significance for scientific land use planning and ecological security protection to clarify the impacts of land use changes on an ecosystem’s health. Based on the dynamic evolution of land use and ecosystem health on the Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountain (NSTM) from 2000 to 2020, this study utilized the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model, the Vitality–Organization–Resilience–Services (VORS) model, and the elasticity approach to assess the impacts of land use changes on ecosystem health under four different scenarios: Natural Development Scenario (ND), Farmland Conservation Priority Scenario (FP), Ecological Conservation Priority Scenario (EP), and Urban Development Priority Scenario (UD). The results indicate that (1) land use on the NSTM from 2000 to 2020 was predominantly characterized by barren land and grassland. (2) The overall level of ecosystem health on the NSTM was poor from 2000 to 2020 but showed a gradual improvement trend. (3) Ecosystem health levels vary greatly across scenarios. In general, ecosystem health improves under FP and EP scenarios but deteriorates significantly under ND and UD scenarios. The resilience of ecosystem health varies significantly across different land categories. In the future, optimizing the current land use pattern and refining the ecological protection policy are essential to enhance ecosystem health and services in the NSTM.

Keywords: multi-scenario simulation; land use change; ecosystem health; PLUS model; Northern Slope of Tianshan Mountain (NSTM) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q15 Q2 Q24 Q28 Q5 R14 R52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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